Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:00
35d 14h to kick-offRosenborg BK – IK Start
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rosenborg BK
- 45%
- Draw
- 29%
- IK Start
- 26%
| Rosenborg BK | Draw | IK Start | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.46 | 3.85 |
- Total goals
- 2.81
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Rosenborg BK
45% Rosenborg BK to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 10th
- Rosenborg BK attack v IK Start defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- Rosenborg BK defence v IK Start attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs +0.21
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.60 – 1.20
- Rosenborg BK v IK Start
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rosenborg BK | IK Start |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 6th | 1.36 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.42 · 6th | 1.61 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.14 · 5th | -0.25 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.52 · 5th | 1.19 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.17 | (better) +0.21 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Rosenborg BK clean sheet
- 27%
- Rosenborg BK 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.4%
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rosenborg BK sample
- 20 matches
- IK Start sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rosenborg BK
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · IK Start
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.