Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
19d 16h to kick-offKAA Gent – RSC Anderlecht
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KAA Gent
- 38%
- Draw
- 32%
- RSC Anderlecht
- 30%
| KAA Gent | Draw | RSC Anderlecht | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.62 | 3.16 | 3.31 |
- Total goals
- 2.48
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KAA Gent
38% KAA Gent to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 5th
- KAA Gent attack v RSC Anderlecht defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 5th
- KAA Gent defence v RSC Anderlecht attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.45 vs +0.50
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.16
- KAA Gent v RSC Anderlecht
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KAA Gent | RSC Anderlecht |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.16 · 14th | (better) 1.62 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.66 · 1st | 0.87 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.50 · 6th | (better) +0.76 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.81 · 5th | (better) 1.88 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.45 | (better) +0.50 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- KAA Gent clean sheet
- 28%
- KAA Gent 2+ goals
- 39%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 0:0
- 8.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KAA Gent sample
- 20 matches
- RSC Anderlecht sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KAA Gent
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · RSC Anderlecht
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.