Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:15
6d 14h to kick-offDeportivo Alavés – Atlético Madrid
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Deportivo Alavés
- 37%
- Draw
- 32%
- Atlético Madrid
- 31%
| Deportivo Alavés | Draw | Atlético Madrid | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.71 | 3.12 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Deportivo Alavés
- Model
- 36.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.4%
- Probability gap
- +14.5 pp
- Edge
- +55.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.71
- Market odds
- 4.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.84
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 32.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.4%
- Probability gap
- +6.6 pp
- Edge
- +18.5%
- Fair odds
- 3.12
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.28
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
-
Atlético Madrid
- Model
- 31.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 52.2%
- Probability gap
- −21.2 pp
- Edge
- −44.1%
- Fair odds
- 3.22
- Market odds
- 1.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.38
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
Outcomes with value
Deportivo Alavés to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Atlético Madrid not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Deportivo Alavés to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
Deportivo Alavés to win
Model 36.9% vs. bookmaker 22.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Deportivo Alavés to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Deportivo Alavés to win 36.9%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 22.4%. The gap between the two is 14.5%.
- La Liga carries more home advantage than most: the baselines the fit reads put a home side's expected goals at 1.31 times an away side's, against a median of 1.22 across the competitions the model fits.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Deportivo Alavés | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.18 | +0.69 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +2.06 | +3.98 |
| Points won minus expected | +0.94 | +3.00 |
| npxG per shot | 0.11 | 0.09 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Deportivo Alavés
37% Deportivo Alavés to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 4th
- Deportivo Alavés attack v Atlético Madrid defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 3rd
- Deportivo Alavés defence v Atlético Madrid attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.18 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.28 – 1.16
- Deportivo Alavés v Atlético Madrid
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Deportivo Alavés | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.28 · 9th | (better) 1.72 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.19 · 5th | (better) 1.02 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.09 · 6th | (better) +0.70 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.44 · 6th | (better) 1.86 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.18 | (better) +0.69 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Deportivo Alavés clean sheet
- 28%
- Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals
- 37%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.4%
- 2:1
- 9.6%
- 0:0
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Deportivo Alavés sample
- 20 matches
- Atlético Madrid sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Deportivo Alavés
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Atlético Madrid
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.