La Liga odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every La Liga qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia – Real Sociedad Valencia to win | Model prob. 45.6% | Price 2.70 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Valencia – Real Sociedad Real Sociedad not to score | Model prob. 33.7% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Valencia – Real Sociedad Valencia 2+ goals | Model prob. 43.5% | Price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.50u |
| Valencia – Real Sociedad Real Sociedad at most 1 goal | Model prob. 73.4% | Price 1.53 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Villarreal – Levante UD Villarreal not to score | Model prob. 17.3% | Price 8.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Villarreal – Levante UD Levante UD to score | Model prob. 76.0% | Price 1.44 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.44u |
| Villarreal – Levante UD Villarreal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 50.2% | Price 2.63 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Villarreal – Levante UD Levante UD 2+ goals | Model prob. 38.9% | Price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid Atlético Madrid to win | Model prob. 35.1% | Price 3.60 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.60u |
| Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid Real Madrid not to score | Model prob. 18.6% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Atlético Madrid – Real Madrid Real Madrid at most 1 goal | Model prob. 52.7% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.20u |
| Athletic Club – Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés to win | Model prob. 21.7% | Price 5.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Athletic Club – Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club not to score | Model prob. 21.5% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +4.50u |
| Athletic Club – Deportivo Alavés Athletic Club at most 1 goal | Model prob. 57.5% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| Real Betis – Getafe Getafe to score | Model prob. 59.7% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Betis – Getafe Getafe 2+ goals | Model prob. 20.1% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Levante UD – Athletic Club Levante UD to win | Model prob. 37.6% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Void | Return 0.00u |
| Levante UD – Athletic Club Levante UD to score | Model prob. 77.4% | Price 1.36 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Void | Return 0.00u |
| Levante UD – Athletic Club Athletic Club not to score | Model prob. 25.8% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Void | Return 0.00u |
| Levante UD – Athletic Club Levante UD 2+ goals | Model prob. 40.8% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Void | Return 0.00u |
| Levante UD – Athletic Club Athletic Club at most 1 goal | Model prob. 63.8% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Void | Return 0.00u |
| Atlético Madrid – Osasuna Osasuna to score | Model prob. 67.7% | Price 1.80 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Elche – Real Madrid Elche to score | Model prob. 70.4% | Price 1.62 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.62u |
| Elche – Real Madrid Elche 2+ goals | Model prob. 31.0% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +3.00u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol Rayo Vallecano to win | Model prob. 50.2% | Price 2.30 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.30u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | Model prob. 51.3% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| Villarreal – Real Betis Villarreal not to score | Model prob. 19.4% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Villarreal – Real Betis Real Betis not to score | Model prob. 33.6% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Villarreal – Real Betis Villarreal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 54.0% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| Villarreal – Real Betis Real Betis at most 1 goal | Model prob. 73.3% | Price 1.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid Real Sociedad to win | Model prob. 35.1% | Price 3.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Sociedad – Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | Model prob. 57.8% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Levante UD – Barcelona Levante UD to score | Model prob. 73.3% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.73u |
| Real Madrid – Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano to score | Model prob. 66.6% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.83u |
| Athletic Club – Elche Athletic Club at most 1 goal | Model prob. 55.4% | Price 2.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.50u |
| Osasuna – Espanyol Osasuna to win | Model prob. 50.3% | Price 2.30 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Osasuna – Espanyol Osasuna 2+ goals | Model prob. 45.4% | Price 2.38 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sevilla – Valencia Sevilla not to score | Model prob. 29.1% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sevilla – Valencia Sevilla at most 1 goal | Model prob. 68.0% | Price 1.62 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.62u |
| Elche – Real Sociedad Elche to win | Model prob. 42.6% | Price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Getafe – Celta Vigo Getafe to win | Model prob. 43.8% | Price 2.55 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano to score | Model prob. 60.3% | Price 1.91 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.91u |
| Barcelona – Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | Model prob. 20.7% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +5.00u |
| Sevilla – Atlético Madrid Sevilla 2+ goals | Model prob. 35.1% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sevilla – Atlético Madrid Atlético Madrid at most 1 goal | Model prob. 72.2% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Sociedad – Espanyol Espanyol to win | Model prob. 27.4% | Price 4.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Sociedad – Espanyol Espanyol to score | Model prob. 74.1% | Price 1.44 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.44u |
| Real Sociedad – Espanyol Espanyol 2+ goals | Model prob. 35.9% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Levante UD – Real Betis Levante UD to score | Model prob. 78.1% | Price 1.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.40u |
| Levante UD – Real Betis Real Betis not to score | Model prob. 29.3% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →