La Liga odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every La Liga qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levante UD – Real Betis Levante UD 2+ goals | Model prob. 41.9% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.00u |
| Levante UD – Real Betis Real Betis at most 1 goal | Model prob. 68.7% | Price 1.67 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Deportivo Alavés – Villarreal Deportivo Alavés to score | Model prob. 81.6% | Price 1.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.33u |
| Deportivo Alavés – Villarreal Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals | Model prob. 47.6% | Price 2.63 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Deportivo Alavés – Villarreal Villarreal at most 1 goal | Model prob. 76.5% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.73u |
| Celta Vigo – Osasuna Osasuna to win | Model prob. 27.4% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +3.00u |
| Celta Vigo – Osasuna Celta Vigo not to score | Model prob. 29.3% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Celta Vigo – Osasuna Celta Vigo at most 1 goal | Model prob. 68.7% | Price 1.67 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.67u |
| Valencia – Real Betis Valencia to win | Model prob. 40.5% | Price 2.80 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Valencia – Real Betis Real Betis not to score | Model prob. 35.6% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Valencia – Real Betis Real Betis at most 1 goal | Model prob. 75.7% | Price 1.53 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.53u |
| Osasuna – Levante UD Levante UD 2+ goals | Model prob. 28.2% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Real Betis – Real Sociedad Real Betis to win | Model prob. 58.8% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.00u |
| Real Betis – Real Sociedad Real Betis to score | Model prob. 86.8% | Price 1.22 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.22u |
| Real Betis – Real Sociedad Real Betis 2+ goals | Model prob. 57.7% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano to score | Model prob. 79.7% | Price 1.36 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.36u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés to score | Model prob. 68.4% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.57u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alavés Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals | Model prob. 44.6% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Rayo Vallecano – Deportivo Alavés Deportivo Alavés 2+ goals | Model prob. 28.8% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →