Liga Portugal odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every Liga Portugal qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Clara – Sporting Braga Santa Clara to win | Model prob. 37.2% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Santa Clara – Sporting Braga Sporting Braga at most 1 goal | Model prob. 83.5% | Price 1.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.50u |
| Estoril Praia – Casa Pia Casa Pia to win | Model prob. 26.0% | Price 4.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +3.75u |
| Vitória SC – Moreirense Vitória SC to win | Model prob. 69.5% | Price 1.52 | Bookmaker Pinnacle | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sporting – FC Arouca FC Arouca to win | Model prob. 10.4% | Price 12.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| CD Nacional – Famalicão CD Nacional to win | Model prob. 31.4% | Price 3.70 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sporting Braga – Estoril Praia Estoril Praia to win | Model prob. 16.5% | Price 8.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| FC Arouca – Santa Clara Santa Clara to win | Model prob. 37.0% | Price 2.88 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.88u |
| FC Arouca – Santa Clara FC Arouca not to score | Model prob. 33.8% | Price 3.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| FC Arouca – Santa Clara FC Arouca at most 1 goal | Model prob. 73.5% | Price 1.44 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.44u |
| Casa Pia – FC Porto Casa Pia to score | Model prob. 61.8% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.10u |
| CD Nacional – FC Alverca CD Nacional to win | Model prob. 38.2% | Price 2.90 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| CD Nacional – FC Alverca FC Alverca not to score | Model prob. 30.5% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| CD Nacional – FC Alverca FC Alverca at most 1 goal | Model prob. 70.0% | Price 1.53 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Moreirense – Benfica Moreirense to win | Model prob. 10.4% | Price 12.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Benfica – Estoril Praia Estoril Praia to win | Model prob. 8.5% | Price 13.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Benfica – Estoril Praia Benfica not to score | Model prob. 7.8% | Price 15.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Benfica – Estoril Praia Estoril Praia to score | Model prob. 58.9% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.83u |
| Benfica – Estoril Praia Benfica at most 1 goal | Model prob. 29.3% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →