Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 13:00
16d 11h to kick-offSanta Clara – Benfica
Model updated 8 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Santa Clara
- 28%
- Draw
- 34%
- Benfica
- 38%
| Santa Clara | Draw | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.53 | 2.93 | 2.66 |
- Total goals
- 2.14
- Over 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Benfica
38% Benfica to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 1st
- Benfica attack v Santa Clara defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- Benfica defence v Santa Clara attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.62 vs +0.74
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.99 – 1.16
- Santa Clara v Benfica
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Santa Clara | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.35 · 6th | (better) 2.32 · 1st |
| xGA / match | 0.69 · 3rd | (better) 0.65 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.67 · 5th | (better) +1.66 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.93 · 5th | (better) 2.40 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.74 | (better) +1.62 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 41% of the model's distribution.
- Benfica clean sheet
- 35%
- Benfica 2+ goals
- 33%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.4%
- 0:0
- 11.9%
- 0:1
- 11.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Santa Clara sample
- 20 matches
- Benfica sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Santa Clara
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Benfica
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Thursday, 08/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.