Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Vitória SC – CF Estrela Amadora
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Vitória SC
- 56%
- Draw
- 27%
- CF Estrela Amadora
- 16%
| Vitória SC | Draw | CF Estrela Amadora | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.77 | 3.64 | 6.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Vitória SC
56% Vitória SC to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 12th
- Vitória SC attack v CF Estrela Amadora defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 8th
- Vitória SC defence v CF Estrela Amadora attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -0.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 0.88
- Vitória SC v CF Estrela Amadora
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Vitória SC | CF Estrela Amadora |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.77 · 4th | 1.23 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.77 · 4th | 1.63 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.99 · 4th | -0.40 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.96 · 4th | 1.13 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Vitória SC clean sheet
- 39%
- Vitória SC 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.2%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 11.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Vitória SC sample
- 20 matches
- CF Estrela Amadora sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Vitória SC
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · CF Estrela Amadora
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.