Toulouse 5:1 Nice: xG & match report · Ligue 1

Saturday, 17/01/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Ligue 1

Toulouse Home 1.84 xG · 22 shots

Nice Away 1.99 xG · 15 shots

51 The chances were evenly matched

Goals

7' Santiago Hidalgo Toulouse · 0.29 xG chance 1–0
45' Frank Magri Toulouse · 0.31 xG chance 2–0
49' Elye Wahi Nice · 0.53 xG chance 2–1
55' Santiago Hidalgo Toulouse · 0.02 xG chance 3–1
74' Cristian Cásseres Jr. Toulouse · 0.12 xG chance 4–1
80' Julian Vignolo Toulouse · 0.06 xG chance 5–1

The shots behind it

Toulouse Nice

Shots: 22; 15
On target: 10; 6
Inside the box: 17; 13
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.13
Open play xG: 1.32; 1.86
Set-piece xG: 0.50; 0.15
Penalties: —; —

Toulouse's shots add up to 1.82 xG and Nice's to 2.01; the published figures are 1.84 and 1.99.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

37 shots · 3.83 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Toulouse
Nice
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Toulouse

1.28 xG created 0.95 xGA

D 1.32 created, 1.36 conceded against Lorient
L 1.98 created, 0.43 conceded against Angers
D 0.70 created, 1.80 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
W 0.50 created, 0.05 conceded against RC Strasbourg
W 2.54 created, 0.46 conceded against Paris FC
L 0.66 created, 1.62 conceded against RC Lens

Nice

1.30 xG created 1.78 xGA

L 0.95 created, 1.58 conceded against Metz
L 1.19 created, 2.86 conceded against Olympique de Marseille
L 0.82 created, 2.38 conceded against Lorient
L 1.31 created, 0.83 conceded against Angers
L 0.76 created, 1.65 conceded against RC Lens
D 2.75 created, 1.35 conceded against RC Strasbourg

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Toulouse: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Nice 0:1 Toulouse 16/08/2025 xG 0.79 – 0.61

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.