Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:30
6d 14h to kick-offFC Košice – KFC Komárno
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- FC Košice
- 44%
- Draw
- 26%
- KFC Komárno
- 30%
| FC Košice | Draw | KFC Komárno | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.29 | 3.84 | 3.29 |
- Total goals
- 3.42
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
FC Košice
- Model
- 43.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 56.7%
- Probability gap
- −13.1 pp
- Edge
- −29.6%
- Fair odds
- 2.29
- Market odds
- 1.62 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.41
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.9%
- Probability gap
- +3.1 pp
- Edge
- +4.2%
- Fair odds
- 3.84
- Market odds
- 4.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.03
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.1%
-
KFC Komárno
- Model
- 30.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 20.4%
- Probability gap
- +10.0 pp
- Edge
- +36.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.29
- Market odds
- 4.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.46
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.1%
Outcomes with value
KFC Komárno to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
KFC Komárno 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
KFC Komárno to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
FC Košice at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Over 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Over 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Best opportunity
KFC Komárno to win
Model 30.4% vs. bookmaker 20.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans FC Košice
44% FC Košice to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 5th
- FC Košice attack v KFC Komárno defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 8th
- FC Košice defence v KFC Komárno attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.47 vs +0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.86 – 1.56
- FC Košice v KFC Komárno
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Košice | KFC Komárno |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.69 · 7th from 4 matches | 1.66 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 2.48 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.32 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) +0.34 · 5th |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.59 · 5th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.47 | (better) +0.07 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- FC Košice clean sheet
- 18%
- FC Košice 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.2%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 2:2
- 8.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Košice
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · KFC Komárno
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.