Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 20:30
Full timeKFC Komárno 1:2 ŠK Slovan Bratislava
ŠK Slovan Bratislava were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- KFC Komárno
- 34%
- Draw
- 28%
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava
- 38% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 9
- 11
- On target
- 1
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.13
Recent form
1.71 xG created 1.29 xGA
- D 2.59 created, 0.61 conceded against AS Trenčín
- L 1.59 created, 1.92 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
- D 1.21 created, 0.65 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 1.21 created, 2.68 conceded against DAC 1904
- L 1.04 created, 1.54 conceded against MŠK Žilina
- D 2.63 created, 0.34 conceded against MFK Skalica
2.68 xG created 1.09 xGA
- W 3.14 created, 0.98 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
- W 2.52 created, 1.11 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
- W 4.66 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Košice
- L 2.45 created, 0.46 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- L 0.35 created, 1.91 conceded against DAC 1904
- D 2.98 created, 1.18 conceded against MŠK Žilina
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged2 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| KFC Komárno to win | 5.25 | +79.1% | Lost |
| KFC Komárno 2+ goals | 2.75 | +28.9% | Lost |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 2.50 | +25.1% | Lost |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 7.00 | +20.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 4.20 | +16.0% | Lost |
| KFC Komárno to score | 1.40 | +13.6% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +5.2% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFC Komárno | 34.1% | 17.9% | +16.2 pp | 2.93 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 22.4% | +5.3 pp | 3.62 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava | 38.3% | 59.8% | −21.5 pp | 2.61 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KFC Komárno to score | 81.1% | 66.3% | +14.8 pp | 1.23 |
| KFC Komárno not to score | 18.9% | 33.7% | −14.8 pp | 5.29 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava to score | 82.8% | 86.6% | −3.8 pp | 1.21 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava not to score | 17.2% | 13.4% | +3.8 pp | 5.82 |
| Both teams to score | 68.6% | 60.8% | +7.9 pp | 1.46 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.4% | 39.2% | −7.9 pp | 3.19 |
| KFC Komárno 2+ goals | 46.9% | 33.7% | +13.1 pp | 2.13 |
| KFC Komárno at most 1 goal | 53.1% | 66.3% | −13.1 pp | 1.88 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava 2+ goals | 50.0% | 62.5% | −12.5 pp | 2.00 |
| ŠK Slovan Bratislava at most 1 goal | 50.0% | 37.5% | +12.5 pp | 2.00 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.1% | 83.0% | +3.1 pp | 1.16 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13.9% | 17.0% | −3.1 pp | 7.21 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 64.5% | −1.3 pp | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 36.8% | 35.5% | +1.3 pp | 2.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KFC Komárno sample
- 20 matches
- ŠK Slovan Bratislava sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.