Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 18:00
18d 0h to kick-offFC Košice – MŠK Žilina
Model updated 7 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Košice
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- MŠK Žilina
- 34%
| FC Košice | Draw | MŠK Žilina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.50 | 3.89 | 2.91 |
- Total goals
- 3.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 71%
- Both teams to score
- 74%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Košice
40% FC Košice to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 4th
- FC Košice attack v MŠK Žilina defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 4th
- FC Košice defence v MŠK Žilina attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.47 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.84 – 1.71
- FC Košice v MŠK Žilina
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Košice | MŠK Žilina |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.69 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.88 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 2.48 · 12th from 4 matches | (better) 1.44 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.79 · 11th from 4 matches | (better) +0.45 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 1.16 · 7th from 4 matches | (better) 1.64 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.47 | (better) +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- FC Košice clean sheet
- 16%
- FC Košice 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 29%
- Both teams to score: no
- 26%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 9.3%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Košice sample
- 20 matches
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Košice
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · MŠK Žilina
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.