MŠK Žilina 2:1 AS Trenčín: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

MŠK Žilina Home 2.69 xG

AS Trenčín Away 0.66 xG

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

MŠK Žilina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was AS Trenčín's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.52 projected (−0.86). MŠK Žilina produced 2.69 xG against 2.20 projected (+0.49).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MŠK Žilina: 53% What happened
Draw: 23%
AS Trenčín: 24%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MŠK Žilina 2.20 2.69 +0.49

AS Trenčín 1.52 0.66 -0.86

AS Trenčín produced 0.86 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MŠK Žilina AS Trenčín

Shots: 26; 4
On target: 12; 1
Inside the box: 14; 4
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.17

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MŠK Žilina

1.36 xG created 1.80 xGA

L 1.10 created, 2.62 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
L 0.30 created, 1.63 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
W 0.76 created, 1.42 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
L 3.25 created, 1.08 conceded against MFK Skalica
W 1.54 created, 1.04 conceded against KFC Komárno
D 1.18 created, 2.98 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava

AS Trenčín

1.90 xG created 2.15 xGA

D 0.61 created, 2.59 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 1.80 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Železiarne Podbrezová
L 1.44 created, 1.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 2.78 created, 1.87 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
L 2.35 created, 1.96 conceded against MFK Zemplín Michalovce
L 2.42 created, 2.49 conceded against DAC 1904

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

MŠK Žilina: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged2 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MŠK Žilina against AS Trenčín before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
AS Trenčín to win	7.00	+68.2%	Lost
AS Trenčín 2+ goals	3.25	+50.8%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+17.0%	Won
AS Trenčín to score	1.44	+16.7%	Won
MŠK Žilina at most 1 goal	3.40	+12.3%	Lost
Draw	4.75	+11.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MŠK Žilina	52.5%	66.9%	−14.4 pp	1.90
Draw	23.5%	19.7%	+3.7 pp	4.26
AS Trenčín	24.0%	13.4%	+10.6 pp	4.16

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MŠK Žilina to score	90.8%	89.0%	+1.8 pp	1.10
MŠK Žilina not to score	9.2%	11.0%	−1.8 pp	10.85
AS Trenčín to score	80.8%	64.5%	+16.3 pp	1.24
AS Trenčín not to score	19.2%	35.5%	−16.3 pp	5.22
Both teams to score	74.4%	58.9%	+15.6 pp	1.34
Both teams not to score	25.6%	41.1%	−15.6 pp	3.91
MŠK Žilina 2+ goals	67.0%	72.3%	−5.4 pp	1.49
MŠK Žilina at most 1 goal	33.0%	27.7%	+5.4 pp	3.03
AS Trenčín 2+ goals	46.4%	29.1%	+17.3 pp	2.15
AS Trenčín at most 1 goal	53.6%	70.9%	−17.3 pp	1.87
Over 1.5 goals	91.6%	86.7%	+4.8 pp	1.09
Under 1.5 goals	8.4%	13.3%	−4.8 pp	11.85
Over 2.5 goals	74.2%	71.1%	+3.1 pp	1.35
Under 2.5 goals	25.8%	28.9%	−3.1 pp	3.88

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MŠK Žilina sample: 20 matches
AS Trenčín sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.