MFK Zemplín Michalovce 1:0 Dukla Banská Bystrica: xG & match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 18:00

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Match report · Niké Liga (Slovakia)

MFK Zemplín Michalovce Home 1.91 xG

Dukla Banská Bystrica Away 1.52 xG

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

MFK Zemplín Michalovce were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 48%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Dukla Banská Bystrica's attack: 1.52 xG against 1.14 projected (+0.38). MFK Zemplín Michalovce produced 1.91 xG against 1.66 projected (+0.25).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

MFK Zemplín Michalovce: 48% What happened
Draw: 28%
Dukla Banská Bystrica: 23%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

MFK Zemplín Michalovce 1.66 1.91 +0.25

Dukla Banská Bystrica 1.14 1.52 +0.38

Dukla Banská Bystrica produced 0.38 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

MFK Zemplín Michalovce Dukla Banská Bystrica

Shots: 16; 19
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 10; 10
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.08

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

MFK Zemplín Michalovce

1.10 xG created 1.68 xGA

W 1.85 created, 0.56 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 1.42 created, 0.76 conceded against MŠK Žilina
D 0.65 created, 1.21 conceded against KFC Komárno
L 0.26 created, 2.73 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.46 created, 2.45 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
W 1.96 created, 2.35 conceded against AS Trenčín

Dukla Banská Bystrica

0.86 xG created 2.12 xGA

L 1.08 created, 1.66 conceded against ŠK Slovan Bratislava
L 0.56 created, 3.82 conceded against FC Spartak Trnava
W 0.74 created, 1.95 conceded against MFK Ružomberok
L 0.40 created, 2.41 conceded against FC Košice
W 1.54 created, 0.77 conceded against MFK Skalica

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on MFK Zemplín Michalovce against Dukla Banská Bystrica before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+13.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.50	+13.7%	Won
Dukla Banská Bystrica to win	4.33	+1.6%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
MFK Zemplín Michalovce	48.1%	54.6%	−6.5 pp	2.08
Draw	28.4%	23.6%	+4.8 pp	3.52
Dukla Banská Bystrica	23.4%	21.8%	+1.7 pp	4.27

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.7%	58.9%	+1.8 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	41.1%	−1.8 pp	2.54
Over 1.5 goals	80.9%	81.4%	−0.5 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.1%	18.6%	+0.5 pp	5.23
Over 2.5 goals	54.5%	62.5%	−8.0 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.5%	37.5%	+8.0 pp	2.20

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample: 20 matches
Dukla Banská Bystrica sample: 5 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.