Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:30
25d 17h to kick-offMŠK Žilina – MFK Zemplín Michalovce
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- MŠK Žilina
- 56%
- Draw
- 25%
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 19%
| MŠK Žilina | Draw | MFK Zemplín Michalovce | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.77 | 4.04 | 5.31 |
- Total goals
- 3.18
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans MŠK Žilina
56% MŠK Žilina to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- MŠK Žilina attack v MFK Zemplín Michalovce defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 10th
- MŠK Žilina defence v MFK Zemplín Michalovce attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.15 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.01 – 1.17
- MŠK Žilina v MFK Zemplín Michalovce
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | MŠK Žilina | MFK Zemplín Michalovce |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.88 · 4th | 1.11 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.44 · 5th | 1.84 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.45 · 4th | -0.73 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.64 · 4th | 0.97 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.15 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- MŠK Žilina clean sheet
- 28%
- MŠK Žilina 2+ goals
- 62%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 2:1
- 11.4%
- 2:0
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- MŠK Žilina sample
- 20 matches
- MFK Zemplín Michalovce sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · MŠK Žilina
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · MFK Zemplín Michalovce
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.