Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offArda Kardzhali – Levski Sofia
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Arda Kardzhali
- 24%
- Draw
- 33%
- Levski Sofia
- 43%
| Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Levski Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.19 | 3.05 | 2.30 |
- Total goals
- 2.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Levski Sofia
43% Levski Sofia to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 6th
- Levski Sofia attack v Arda Kardzhali defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 6th
- Levski Sofia defence v Arda Kardzhali attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.10 vs +0.46
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.94 – 1.31
- Arda Kardzhali v Levski Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Arda Kardzhali | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.55 · 6th | (better) 2.09 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.26 · 7th | (better) 0.73 · 1st |
| xGD / match | +0.29 · 6th | (better) +1.36 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.57 · 6th | (better) 2.19 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.46 | (better) +1.10 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Levski Sofia clean sheet
- 36%
- Levski Sofia 2+ goals
- 38%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.9%
- 0:1
- 11.5%
- 0:0
- 10.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Arda Kardzhali sample
- 20 matches
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Arda Kardzhali
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Levski Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.