Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 19:30
Kicked offLevski Sofia – Ludogorets
Model updated 14 September, 08:18 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Levski Sofia
- 39%
- Draw
- 33%
- Ludogorets
- 28%
| Levski Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.56 | 3.06 | 3.54 |
- Total goals
- 2.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Levski Sofia
39% Levski Sofia to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Levski Sofia attack v Ludogorets defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 1st
- Levski Sofia defence v Ludogorets attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.10 vs +1.39
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.27 – 1.07
- Levski Sofia v Ludogorets
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Levski Sofia | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.09 · 3rd | (better) 2.42 · 1st |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.73 · 1st | 1.02 · 5th |
| xGD / match | +1.36 · 2nd | (better) +1.39 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 2.19 · 2nd | (better) 2.19 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +1.10 | (better) +1.40 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Levski Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Levski Sofia
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Ludogorets
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 14/09/2026 at 08:18
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.