Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 16:30
6d 14h to kick-offLokomotiv Sofia – Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Lokomotiv Sofia
- 27%
- Draw
- 33%
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 40%
| Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.69 | 3.01 | 2.52 |
- Total goals
- 2.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 51%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 7 outcomes.
-
Lokomotiv Sofia
- Model
- 27.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.9%
- Probability gap
- −15.7 pp
- Edge
- −41.7%
- Fair odds
- 3.69
- Market odds
- 2.15 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.87
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 33.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.4%
- Probability gap
- +4.9 pp
- Edge
- +8.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.01
- Market odds
- 3.25 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.16
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
-
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- Model
- 39.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 28.8%
- Probability gap
- +10.9 pp
- Edge
- +27.0%
- Fair odds
- 2.52
- Market odds
- 3.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 8.5%
Outcomes with value
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Lokomotiv Sofia not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Lokomotiv Sofia at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
Model 39.7% vs. bookmaker 28.8%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model disagrees with the market
The leading outcome: Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
What the model's reading is made of
- The model makes Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win 39.7%. The market, with the bookmaker's margin taken out, makes it 28.8%. The gap between the two is 10.9%.
- The defence Lokomotiv Plovdiv plays against is Lokomotiv Sofia's, which the fit rates at 1.23 — above the competition's average of 1.00, so an average side creates more against them than against the field.
These are the parts of the model's own number, not an account of the bookmaker's. The fit reads two ratings a side, the competition's average home and away expected goals, the window it looks back over and how many matches it found in it — and nothing else is a reason this page can give.
What the model did not read
| Reading | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| Form — xG difference, the last 6 matches | -0.94 | -0.19 |
| Goals scored minus expected | +1.12 | -4.23 |
| Points won minus expected | -0.21 | -4.97 |
| npxG per shot | 0.09 | 0.11 |
All of this is in the database and none of it entered the fit. A reading here may point the other way from every line above it — where it does, both are true, and only one of them is in the model.
Why the model leans Lokomotiv Plovdiv
40% Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 12th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack v Lokomotiv Sofia defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 7th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence v Lokomotiv Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.94
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.01 – 1.24
- Lokomotiv Sofia v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Lokomotiv Sofia | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.10 · 8th | 0.89 · 13th |
| xGA / match | 2.10 · 12th | (better) 0.92 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -1.00 · 12th | (better) -0.03 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 0.80 · 13th | (better) 1.28 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.94 | (better) -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv clean sheet
- 34%
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 49%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.1%
- 0:1
- 10.9%
- 0:0
- 10.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Lokomotiv Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Lokomotiv Sofia
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.