Friday, 30/10/2026 at 20:45
25d 18h to kick-offDundalk FC – Shamrock Rovers
Model updated 5 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundalk FC
- 35%
- Draw
- 28%
- Shamrock Rovers
- 37%
| Dundalk FC | Draw | Shamrock Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.83 | 3.57 | 2.73 |
- Total goals
- 3.10
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Shamrock Rovers to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 8th
- Shamrock Rovers attack v Dundalk FC defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 4th
- Shamrock Rovers defence v Dundalk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.36 vs -0.56
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.54 – 1.56
- Dundalk FC v Shamrock Rovers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundalk FC | Shamrock Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.57 · 3rd | 1.41 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.58 · 7th | (better) 1.14 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.01 · 6th | (better) +0.27 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.35 · 6th | (better) 1.58 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.56 | (better) +0.36 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Shamrock Rovers clean sheet
- 19%
- Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 38%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.1%
- 1:2
- 9.7%
- 2:1
- 9.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundalk FC
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Shamrock Rovers
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.