Friday, 23/10/2026 at 21:00
19d 21h to kick-offShamrock Rovers – Sligo Rovers
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Shamrock Rovers
- 65%
- Draw
- 22%
- Sligo Rovers
- 12%
| Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Sligo Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.53 | 4.49 | 8.15 |
- Total goals
- 3.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shamrock Rovers
65% Shamrock Rovers to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 10th
- Shamrock Rovers attack v Sligo Rovers defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 10th
- Shamrock Rovers defence v Sligo Rovers attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.36 vs -1.19
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.15 – 0.93
- Shamrock Rovers v Sligo Rovers
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shamrock Rovers | Sligo Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 4th | 1.03 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 3rd | 1.88 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.27 · 3rd | -0.85 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 3rd | 0.87 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.36 | -1.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Shamrock Rovers clean sheet
- 37%
- Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 1:1
- 11.1%
- 2:0
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Sligo Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shamrock Rovers
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · Sligo Rovers
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.