Friday, 09/10/2026 at 21:00
5d 19h to kick-offShamrock Rovers – Drogheda United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 1 October, 10:23
What the model expects
- Shamrock Rovers
- 55%
- Draw
- 27%
- Drogheda United
- 18%
| Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Drogheda United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.81 | 3.75 | 5.48 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Shamrock Rovers
- Model
- 55.1%
- Market, margin removed
- 65.2%
- Probability gap
- −10.1 pp
- Edge
- −22.8%
- Fair odds
- 1.81
- Market odds
- 1.40 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.90
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.5%
-
Draw
- Model
- 26.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 21.7%
- Probability gap
- +4.9 pp
- Edge
- +11.9%
- Fair odds
- 3.75
- Market odds
- 4.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.94
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.5%
-
Drogheda United
- Model
- 18.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 13.0%
- Probability gap
- +5.2 pp
- Edge
- +27.6%
- Fair odds
- 5.48
- Market odds
- 7.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 5.76
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.5%
Outcomes with value
Drogheda United to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Best opportunity
Drogheda United to win
Model 18.2% vs. bookmaker 13.0%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Shamrock Rovers
55% Shamrock Rovers to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 7th
- Shamrock Rovers attack v Drogheda United defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- Shamrock Rovers defence v Drogheda United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.36 vs -0.85
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.81 – 1.02
- Shamrock Rovers v Drogheda United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shamrock Rovers | Drogheda United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 4th | 1.16 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.14 · 3rd | 1.60 · 8th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.27 · 3rd | -0.44 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.58 · 3rd | 1.10 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.36 | -0.85 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Shamrock Rovers clean sheet
- 33%
- Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals
- 56%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.4%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 9.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shamrock Rovers
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · Drogheda United
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 2 days ago · over a day old
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.