Friday, 09/10/2026 at 20:45
5d 19h to kick-offWaterford FC – Galway United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Waterford FC
- 55%
- Draw
- 24%
- Galway United
- 22%
| Waterford FC | Draw | Galway United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.82 | 4.24 | 4.62 |
- Total goals
- 3.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Waterford FC
55% Waterford FC to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- Waterford FC attack v Galway United defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 7th
- Waterford FC defence v Galway United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.18 – 1.40
- Waterford FC v Galway United
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Waterford FC | Galway United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.40 · 6th | 1.35 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 9th | (better) 1.51 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.38 · 8th | (better) -0.16 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.17 · 8th | (better) 1.28 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.58 | -0.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Waterford FC clean sheet
- 22%
- Waterford FC 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.4%
- 1:1
- 9.9%
- 3:1
- 7.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Waterford FC sample
- 20 matches
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Waterford FC
- 16 matches
- Away xG sample · Galway United
- 16 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.