Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 15:00
14d 13h to kick-offBournemouth – Sunderland
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bournemouth
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Sunderland
- 28%
| Bournemouth | Draw | Sunderland | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.37 | 3.37 | 3.56 |
- Total goals
- 2.75
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Bournemouth
42% Bournemouth to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 6th
- Bournemouth attack v Sunderland defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 8th
- Bournemouth defence v Sunderland attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.17 vs +0.29
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.52 – 1.23
- Bournemouth v Sunderland
Squad news
Bournemouth
7 listed-
Justin Kluivert 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Junior Kroupi 0% chance
Midfielder · Foot injury - Expected back 7 Nov
-
Will Dennis 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined MK Dons permanently
-
Veljko Milosavljevic 0% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Julián Araujo Zúñiga 0% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Amine Adli 0% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Enes Ünal 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Getafe permanently
Sunderland
9 listed-
Anthony Patterson 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined Wrexham permanently
-
Arthur Masuaku 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Konyaspor permanently
-
Jenson Seelt 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Swansea City on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leo Fuhr Hjelde 0% chance
Defender · Has joined KV Mechelen on loan for the rest of the season
-
Simon Adingra 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Ajax on loan for the rest of the season
-
Habib Diarra 0% chance
Midfielder · Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
-
Romaine Mundle 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Brian Brobbey 75% chance
Forward · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Daniel Ballard 75% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.34 · 14th | (better) 1.90 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.39 · 7th | 1.75 · 14th |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 11th | (better) +0.15 · 9th |
| xPts / match | 1.39 · 12th | (better) 1.47 · 9th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.17 | (better) +0.29 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Bournemouth clean sheet
- 26%
- Bournemouth 2+ goals
- 46%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bournemouth sample
- 20 matches
- Sunderland sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bournemouth
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Sunderland
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.