Brentford 3:1 Burnley: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 29/11/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Brentford Home 3.06 xG · 14 shots

Burnley Away 0.95 xG · 6 shots

31 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

81' Igor Thiago (pen.) Brentford · 0.82 xG chance 1–0
85' Zian Flemming (pen.) Burnley · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
86' Igor Thiago Brentford · 0.25 xG chance 2–1
90' Dango Ouattara Brentford · 0.54 xG chance 3–1

The shots behind it

Brentford Burnley

Shots: 14; 6
On target: 4; 2
Inside the box: 11; 2
xG per shot: 0.22; 0.16
Open play xG: 1.48; 0.04
Set-piece xG: 0.83; 0.11
Penalties: 1; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.28 for Brentford and 0.16 for Burnley.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 4.10 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Brentford
Burnley
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Brentford

1.76 xG created 0.97 xGA

L 0.70 created, 0.85 conceded against Manchester City
W 2.31 created, 0.33 conceded against West Ham United
W 2.75 created, 2.30 conceded against Liverpool
L 0.54 created, 0.70 conceded against Crystal Palace
W 2.35 created, 0.44 conceded against Newcastle United
L 1.91 created, 1.22 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

Burnley

0.70 xG created 2.21 xGA

L 0.40 created, 1.16 conceded against Aston Villa
W 0.45 created, 2.63 conceded against Leeds United
W 1.43 created, 2.28 conceded against Wolverhampton
L 0.42 created, 2.42 conceded against Arsenal
L 1.06 created, 3.02 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.44 created, 1.72 conceded against Chelsea

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.