Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Liverpool – Newcastle United
Model updated 5 October, 12:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Liverpool
- 57%
- Draw
- 26%
- Newcastle United
- 17%
| Liverpool | Draw | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 3.88 | 5.81 |
- Total goals
- 2.91
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score
- 60%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Liverpool
57% Liverpool to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 20th
- Liverpool attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 19th
- Liverpool defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.62 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.89 – 1.02
- Liverpool v Newcastle United
Squad news
Liverpool
12 listed-
Calvin Ramsay 0% chance
Defender · Has joined St Mirren on loan for the rest of the season
-
Hugo Ekitiké 0% chance
Forward · Achilles injury - Unknown return date
-
Harvey Elliott 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Valencia on loan for the rest of the season
-
Giovanni Leoni 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Armin Pecsi 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined TSV Hartberg on loan for the rest of the season
-
Vitezslav Jaros 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Stefan Bajčetić Maquieira 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Celta Vigo permanently
-
Conor Bradley 0% chance
Defender · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Curtis Jones 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Internazionale permanently
-
Federico Chiesa 0% chance
Midfielder · Back injury - Unknown return date
-
Alexander Isak 75% chance
Forward · Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Cody Gakpo 75% chance
Midfielder · Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
Newcastle United
13 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
-
Lewis Miley 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Liverpool | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.67 · 7th | 1.07 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.22 · 3rd | 1.83 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.45 · 7th | -0.76 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.69 · 4th | 0.82 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.62 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Liverpool clean sheet
- 33%
- Liverpool 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score: no
- 40%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
- 2:0
- 9.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Liverpool
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Newcastle United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 12:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.