Nottingham Forest 2:2 Manchester United: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 01/11/2025 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Nottingham Forest Home 2.00 xG · 17 shots

Manchester United Away 1.15 xG · 18 shots

22 Nottingham Forest had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

34' Casemiro Manchester United · 0.12 xG chance 0–1
48' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.19 xG chance 1–1
50' Nicolò Savona Nottingham Forest · 0.75 xG chance 2–1
81' Amad Diallo Manchester United · 0.03 xG chance 2–2

The shots behind it

Nottingham Forest Manchester United

Shots: 17; 18
On target: 3; 7
Inside the box: 11; 8
xG per shot: 0.12; 0.06
Open play xG: 1.66; 0.52
Set-piece xG: 0.31; 0.59
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.00 for Nottingham Forest and 1.14 for Manchester United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.08 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Nottingham Forest

0.99 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.20 created, 1.84 conceded against Arsenal
D 1.10 created, 0.85 conceded against Burnley
L 1.65 created, 1.19 conceded against Sunderland
L 0.29 created, 3.28 conceded against Newcastle United
L 2.35 created, 1.67 conceded against Chelsea
L 0.37 created, 0.58 conceded against Bournemouth

Manchester United

1.65 xG created 1.61 xGA

L 1.52 created, 2.63 conceded against Manchester City
W 1.84 created, 0.43 conceded against Chelsea
L 2.03 created, 1.99 conceded against Brentford
W 1.88 created, 0.71 conceded against Sunderland
W 1.34 created, 2.75 conceded against Liverpool
W 1.29 created, 1.12 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.