Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:00
23d 21h to kick-offNK Maribor – NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Model updated 7 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Maribor
- 40%
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 29%
| NK Maribor | Draw | NK Olimpija Ljubljana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.49 | 3.23 | 3.45 |
- Total goals
- 2.58
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Maribor
40% NK Maribor to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 4th
- NK Maribor attack v NK Olimpija Ljubljana defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 5th
- NK Maribor defence v NK Olimpija Ljubljana attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.94 vs +0.48
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.18
- NK Maribor v NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Maribor | NK Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.48 · 6th | (better) 1.66 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.84 · 1st | 1.32 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.64 · 1st | +0.34 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.84 · 1st | 1.61 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.94 | +0.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- NK Maribor clean sheet
- 28%
- NK Maribor 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.8%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Maribor sample
- 20 matches
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Maribor
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.