xgEdge

Expected goals

NŠ Mura expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

PrvaLiga (Slovenia) · after 10 matches · updated 1 Oct

NŠ Mura's attacking and defensive expected goals in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

NŠ Mura xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.26 xG per match
#9/10
Attack (xG per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.76
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.66
#3 NK Celje 1.59
#4 FC Koper 1.53
#5 NK Bravo 1.48
#6 NK Maribor 1.48
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.44
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 1.31
#9 NŠ Mura 1.26
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 1.25
League avg
1.48
Total
12.64 10 matches
Defence
1.39 xGA per match
#5/10
Defence (xGA per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 NK Maribor 0.84
#2 NK Celje 1.05
#3 FC Koper 1.28
#4 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.32
#5 NŠ Mura 1.39
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.48
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.70
#8 Brinje Grosuplje 1.77
#9 NK Bravo 1.92
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 1.96
League avg
1.48
Total
13.93 10 matches
xG difference
-0.13 xGD per match
#7/10
xG difference (xGD per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 NK Maribor +0.64
#2 NK Celje +0.54
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana +0.34
#4 FC Koper +0.25
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 +0.05
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo -0.05
#7 NŠ Mura -0.13
#8 NK Bravo -0.44
#9 Brinje Grosuplje -0.52
#10 Kalcer Radomlje -0.65
League avg
0.00
Total
-1.29 10 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.22 xPts per match
#7/10
Expected points (xPts per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 NK Maribor 1.84
#2 NK Celje 1.78
#3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.61
#4 FC Koper 1.55
#5 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.37
#6 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.29
#7 NŠ Mura 1.22
#8 NK Bravo 1.06
#9 Brinje Grosuplje 1.06
#10 Kalcer Radomlje 0.99
League avg
1.37
Total
12.18 vs 9 actual pts

What the xG says

NŠ Mura's underlying numbers are among the weakest in PrvaLiga (Slovenia). They rank #7 for xG difference at -0.13 per match, from about average shot volume at low chance quality. Their 10 goals are 2.64 below 12.64 xG, while 9 points are 3.18 below 12.18 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
10 12.64 -2.64 scored 2.64 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
21 13.93 +7.07 conceded 7.07 more than xGA outside normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
9 12.18 -3.18 3.18 points below xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

NŠ Mura are 2.64 goals below their xG after 10 matches.

Goals
10
xG
12.64
Gap
-2.64
Fri 17/07 Sat 25/07 Sat 01/08 Mon 10/08 Sun 16/08 Sat 22/08 Sat 29/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +1.04 +1.74 +1.80 +1.56 +1.84 +0.78 -1.64 -1.22 -2.23 -2.64 +1.04 +0.70 +0.06 -0.24 +0.28 -1.06 -2.42 +0.42 -1.01 -0.41 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
NŠ Mura: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 17/07 NK Celje 2 0.96 +1.04 +1.04
Sat 25/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1 0.30 +0.70 +1.74
Sat 01/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2 1.94 +0.06 +1.80
Mon 10/08 Kalcer Radomlje 1 1.24 -0.24 +1.56
Sun 16/08 Brinje Grosuplje 2 1.72 +0.28 +1.84
Sat 22/08 FC Koper 0 1.06 -1.06 +0.78
Sat 29/08 NK Bravo 0 2.42 -2.42 -1.64
Sun 06/09 NK Maribor 1 0.58 +0.42 -1.22
Sun 13/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1 2.01 -1.01 -2.23
Sun 20/09 NK Celje 0 0.41 -0.41 -2.64

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

NŠ Mura xG trend

Current form +0.17 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 10 matches. The worst was against NK Olimpija Ljubljana on Sat 25/07 (-0.82).

npxG · last 6
1.37
npxGA · last 6
1.20
-1 0 +1 -0.22 Fri 17/07 -0.82 Sat 25/07 +0.65 Sat 01/08 -0.42 Mon 10/08 +0.23 Sun 16/08 -0.08 Sat 22/08 +0.79 Sat 29/08 -0.80 Sun 06/09 +0.88 Sun 13/09 +0.01 Sun 20/09 +0.02 season avg
NŠ Mura: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 17/07 NK Celje 0.96 1.18 -0.22 -0.22
Sat 25/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.30 1.12 -0.82 -0.52
Sat 01/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 1.94 1.29 +0.65 -0.13
Mon 10/08 Kalcer Radomlje 1.24 1.66 -0.42 -0.20
Sun 16/08 Brinje Grosuplje 1.72 1.49 +0.23 -0.12
Sat 22/08 FC Koper 1.06 1.14 -0.08 -0.11
Sat 29/08 NK Bravo 2.42 1.63 +0.79 +0.02
Sun 06/09 NK Maribor 0.58 1.38 -0.80 -0.08
Sun 13/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2.01 1.13 +0.88 +0.02
Sun 20/09 NK Celje 0.41 0.40 +0.01 +0.02

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.26 npxG and 1.24 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 5 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 3 hardest of 10 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)
+0.10 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 5 hardest of 10

  1. NK Celje Home +0.35
  2. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.28
  3. NK Maribor Away +0.38
  4. NK Bravo Away −0.09
  5. FC Koper Home +0.15
  6. Brinje Grosuplje Away −0.27
  7. Kalcer Radomlje Home −0.52
  8. NK Nafta Lendava 1903 Away −0.20
  9. NK Olimpija Ljubljana Home +0.25
  10. NK Celje Away +0.35

Last 5

+0.10 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 3 hardest of 10

  1. NK Celje Home +0.35
  2. NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home −0.28
  3. NK Maribor Away +0.38
  4. NK Bravo Away −0.09
  5. FC Koper Home +0.15

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

NŠ Mura shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. NŠ Mura take 12.1 shots a match (league 11.8) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #4 in PrvaLiga (Slovenia) for volume and #9 for quality. 57% of their shots come from inside the box (league 60%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.1 shots per match
#4/10
Shot volume (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 14.9
#2 NK Maribor 13.8
#3 NK Celje 12.1
#4 NŠ Mura 12.1
#5 FC Koper 12.0
#6 NK Bravo 11.9
#7 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 11.4
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 10.9
#9 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 10.0
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 8.8
League avg
11.8
Total
121 shots from 10 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#9/10
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.15
#2 Brinje Grosuplje 0.14
#3 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.14
#4 NK Celje 0.12
#5 FC Koper 0.12
#6 Kalcer Radomlje 0.11
#7 NK Bravo 0.11
#8 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.11
#9 NŠ Mura 0.10
#10 NK Maribor 0.10
League avg
0.12
Total
12.64 npxG from 121 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
10.8 shots per match
=4/10
Shots allowed (shots per match) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 NK Maribor 8.7
#2 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 9.6
#3 NK Celje 9.9
=4 Brinje Grosuplje 10.8
=4 NŠ Mura 10.8
#6 FC Koper 11.5
#7 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 12.1
#8 Kalcer Radomlje 12.8
#9 NK Bravo 14.6
#10 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 17.1
League avg
11.8
Total
108 shots allowed from 10 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.12 npxGA per shot
#6/10
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across PrvaLiga (Slovenia), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 NK Maribor 0.10
#2 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 0.10
#3 NK Celje 0.11
#4 FC Koper 0.11
#5 NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0.11
#6 NŠ Mura 0.12
#7 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0.12
#8 NK Bravo 0.13
#9 Kalcer Radomlje 0.15
#10 Brinje Grosuplje 0.16
League avg
0.12
Total
12.42 npxGA from 108 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

57% inside the box

League avg 60%

From 69 of 121 shots over 10 matches

Shots allowed, location

61% allowed inside the box

League avg 60%

From 66 of 108 shots allowed over 10 matches

How the shot figures are made →

NŠ Mura home and away xG

NŠ Mura per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 5
xG / match 1.00 1.52
xGA / match 1.24 1.54
xGD / match -0.24 -0.02
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.11 1.33

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every NŠ Mura match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
10
xG / match
1.26
xGA / match
1.39
xGD / match
-0.13
Points
9 of 30
  1. Sun 20/09 NK Celje H xG 0.41 xGA 0.40 xGD +0.01
  2. Sun 13/09 NK Aluminij Kidričevo H xG 2.01 xGA 1.89 P xGD +0.12
  3. Sun 06/09 NK Maribor A xG 0.58 xGA 1.38 xGD -0.80
  4. Sat 29/08 NK Bravo A Best underlying xG 2.42 xGA 1.63 xGD +0.79
  5. Sat 22/08 FC Koper H xG 1.06 xGA 1.14 xGD -0.08
  6. Sun 16/08 Brinje Grosuplje A xG 1.72 xGA 1.48 xGD +0.24
  7. Mon 10/08 Kalcer Radomlje H xG 1.24 xGA 1.66 xGD -0.42
  8. Sat 01/08 NK Nafta Lendava 1903 A xG 1.94 xGA 1.29 xGD +0.65
  9. Sat 25/07 NK Olimpija Ljubljana H xG 0.30 xGA 1.12 xGD -0.82
  10. Fri 17/07 NK Celje A Weakest underlying xG 0.96 xGA 1.94 P xGD -0.98

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

NŠ Mura in PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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