Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 16:00
32d 18h to kick-offHeart of Midlothian – Falkirk FC
Model updated 6 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Heart of Midlothian
- 45%
- Draw
- 32%
- Falkirk FC
- 23%
| Heart of Midlothian | Draw | Falkirk FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.22 | 3.13 | 4.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.33
- Over 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Heart of Midlothian
45% Heart of Midlothian to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Heart of Midlothian attack v Falkirk FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- Heart of Midlothian defence v Falkirk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.63 vs -0.73
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.38 – 0.95
- Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Heart of Midlothian | Falkirk FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.62 · 4th | 0.90 · 11th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.26 · 3rd | 1.66 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.35 · 3rd | -0.76 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.68 · 3rd | 0.86 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.63 | -0.73 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- Heart of Midlothian clean sheet
- 35%
- Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.5%
- 1:0
- 11.0%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Falkirk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Falkirk FC
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.