Atalanta – Milan prediction, 21 March 2027 · Serie A

Sunday, 21/03/2027

Match preview · Serie A

Atalanta 11th in Serie A Home 1.27 projected goals

Milan 5th in Serie A Away 1.16 projected goals

Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.27 1.16

Atalanta Milan

Atalanta: 37%
Draw: 32%
Milan: 31%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Atalanta	Draw	Milan
Fair odds	2.72	3.11	3.22

Total goals: 2.44
Over 2.5 goals: 45%
Both teams to score: 56%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model leans Atalanta

37% Atalanta to win

Attack: 9th vs 7th; Atalanta attack v Milan defence
Defence: 12th vs 13th; Atalanta defence v Milan attack
Recent xG form: -0.79 vs +0.16; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.27 – 1.16; Atalanta v Milan

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Atalanta and Milan compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Atalanta	Milan
xG / match	0.81 · 19th	(better) 1.58 · 7th
xGA / match	1.87 · 17th	(better) 1.18 · 5th
xGD / match	-1.06 · 19th	(better) +0.40 · 6th
xPts / match	0.67 · 19th	(better) 1.63 · 6th
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.79	(better) +0.16

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Atalanta and Milan compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Atalanta	Milan
xG / match	0.81 · 19th	(better) 1.58 · 7th
npxG / match	0.70	(better) 1.39
Shots / match	11.8 · joint 15th	(better) 12.8 · joint 13th
npxG / shot	0.06 · 20th	(better) 0.11 · 6th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Atalanta and Milan compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Atalanta	Milan
xGA / match	1.87 · 17th	(better) 1.18 · 5th
Shots faced / match	19.2 · 18th	(better) 9.0 · 2nd
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.09 · 13th	0.13 · 18th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Atalanta and Milan compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Atalanta	Milan
Last 6 xG / match	0.91	(better) 1.61
Last 6 xGA / match	1.70	(better) 1.45
Last 6 xGD / match	-0.79	(better) +0.16

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Atalanta attack → Milan defence

Evenly matched

Atalanta attack: 1.03 · 9th
Milan defence: 0.91 · 7th

Milan attack → Atalanta defence

Evenly matched

Milan attack: 0.96 · 13th
Atalanta defence: 1.03 · 12th

The season aggregate places Atalanta 19th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Milan 7th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 13th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Atalanta 17th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 12th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.

Atalanta clean sheet: 28%
Atalanta 2+ goals: 37%
Under 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: no: 44%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 16.6%
2:1: 9.7%
0:0: 9.0%

Value calculator

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How value is calculated

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Match result

Atalanta to win

36.8% 2.72 —

Draw

32.1% 3.11 —

Milan to win

31.1% 3.22 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

74.3% 1.35 —

Under 1.5 goals

25.7% 3.90 —

Over 2.5 goals

44.9% 2.23 —

Under 2.5 goals

55.1% 1.81 —

Both teams to score

55.6% 1.80 —

Both teams not to score

44.4% 2.25 —

Team goals — Atalanta

Atalanta to score

75.0% 1.33 —

Atalanta not to score

25.0% 4.00 —

Atalanta 2+ goals

37.1% 2.69 —

Atalanta at most 1 goal

62.9% 1.59 —

Team goals — Milan

Milan to score

71.6% 1.40 —

Milan not to score

28.4% 3.52 —

Milan 2+ goals

32.9% 3.04 —

Milan at most 1 goal

67.1% 1.49 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Atalanta sample: 20 matches
Milan sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Atalanta: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Milan: 3 matches
Computed: Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Atalanta

0.91 xG created 1.70 xGA

D 1.38 created, 0.85 conceded against Fiorentina
W 0.88 created, 2.70 conceded against Sassuolo
W 0.15 created, 1.05 conceded against Bologna
L 0.70 created, 2.97 conceded against Roma
L 1.74 created, 1.32 conceded against Cagliari
L 0.60 created, 1.31 conceded against Juventus

Milan

1.61 xG created 1.45 xGA

L 1.74 created, 2.78 conceded against Cagliari
W 2.15 created, 1.29 conceded against Torino
W 2.21 created, 0.80 conceded against Venezia
D 0.11 created, 1.59 conceded against Juventus
D 1.25 created, 2.01 conceded against Lazio
W 2.19 created, 0.21 conceded against Lecce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost