Serie A odds: history of flagged selections 2026/2027
Estimates from a statistical model, published for reading rather than as betting advice. A positive value is a statement about an average over a long run, not about the match in front of you.
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Every Serie A qualified selection this season — a fresh price, full model data, a market with measured skill and an edge from 5% up to but not including 40%, at the model's last evaluation before kickoff — newest first, with its result and what an equal stake of one unit returned.
The price shown is the one paired with the last evaluation before kickoff, not necessarily the price available when the selection first appeared. Selections that no longer qualified at that evaluation are not counted.
| Match and selection | Model prob. | Price | Bookmaker | Captured | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milan – Lecce Lecce to score | Model prob. 61.0% | Price 2.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Milan – Lecce Lecce 2+ goals | Model prob. 21.2% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Parma – Genoa Parma to win | Model prob. 32.9% | Price 3.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.20u |
| Fiorentina – Napoli Napoli at most 1 goal | Model prob. 64.3% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.73u |
| Roma – Inter Roma to win | Model prob. 41.8% | Price 2.70 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Roma – Inter Inter not to score | Model prob. 25.0% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Roma – Inter Inter at most 1 goal | Model prob. 62.9% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Inter – Udinese Udinese to score | Model prob. 65.9% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.83u |
| Inter – Udinese Inter at most 1 goal | Model prob. 32.5% | Price 3.40 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Torino – Roma Roma not to score | Model prob. 16.2% | Price 6.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Torino – Roma Roma at most 1 goal | Model prob. 48.3% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Como – Parma Parma to win | Model prob. 10.7% | Price 13.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Como – Parma Parma to score | Model prob. 51.6% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.20u |
| Como – Parma Como at most 1 goal | Model prob. 45.7% | Price 3.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Como – Parma Parma 2+ goals | Model prob. 13.1% | Price 9.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Napoli – Bologna Bologna to win | Model prob. 28.7% | Price 4.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Napoli – Bologna Napoli not to score | Model prob. 28.9% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Napoli – Bologna Napoli at most 1 goal | Model prob. 67.8% | Price 1.73 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.73u |
| Atalanta – Cagliari Cagliari to win | Model prob. 27.8% | Price 5.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +4.00u |
| Atalanta – Cagliari Cagliari to score | Model prob. 74.2% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.57u |
| Atalanta – Cagliari Cagliari 2+ goals | Model prob. 36.1% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.75u |
| Lazio – Milan Lazio to score | Model prob. 73.5% | Price 1.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.50u |
| Lazio – Milan Milan not to score | Model prob. 34.8% | Price 3.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Lazio – Milan Lazio 2+ goals | Model prob. 35.2% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.50u |
| Lazio – Milan Milan at most 1 goal | Model prob. 74.9% | Price 1.57 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Juventus – Milan Juventus to win | Model prob. 53.7% | Price 2.15 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Inter – Napoli Napoli to win | Model prob. 20.9% | Price 5.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Genoa – Como Genoa to win | Model prob. 21.1% | Price 5.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Atalanta – Bologna Bologna to win | Model prob. 28.0% | Price 4.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Atalanta – Bologna Atalanta not to score | Model prob. 24.9% | Price 4.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Atalanta – Bologna Atalanta at most 1 goal | Model prob. 62.3% | Price 1.80 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.80u |
| Lecce – Roma Lecce to score | Model prob. 59.6% | Price 1.83 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Lecce – Roma Roma not to score | Model prob. 22.9% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Lecce – Roma Lecce 2+ goals | Model prob. 20.1% | Price 6.00 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Lecce – Roma Roma at most 1 goal | Model prob. 59.6% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Juventus – Parma Parma to score | Model prob. 52.9% | Price 2.10 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Juventus – Parma Juventus at most 1 goal | Model prob. 38.3% | Price 2.75 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Lost | Return −1.00u |
| Sassuolo – Torino Sassuolo to win | Model prob. 49.9% | Price 2.25 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.25u |
| Sassuolo – Torino Sassuolo 2+ goals | Model prob. 51.2% | Price 2.20 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +1.20u |
| Bologna – Lazio Bologna not to score | Model prob. 30.1% | Price 3.50 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +2.50u |
| Bologna – Lazio Bologna at most 1 goal | Model prob. 69.5% | Price 1.53 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.53u |
| Bologna – Lazio Lazio at most 1 goal | Model prob. 79.0% | Price 1.33 | Bookmaker Bet365 | Captured | Result Won | Return +0.33u |
A selection counts only if the live feed evaluated and priced it before kickoff and it qualified at that evaluation. Nothing is added afterwards. A pending selection is graded by the nightly settlement. How the model works →