Serie A

Serie A results 2026/2027

Every Serie A match played this season, newest first, with the xG each side created and the home, draw and away probabilities the model held before kickoff.

xG reading

All Went with the xG Went against the xG

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Model record

Most likely outcome landed in 13 of 30 matches (43%). The probabilities implied about 14 (46%). Brier score 0.60 (reference 0.65; lower is better). How the model works →

Home
Draw
Away

What happened Most likely outcome Upset

Sunday, 20/09/2026

2 matches

20:45

Milan 3

Lecce 0

xG 2.19 – 0.21 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:00

Juventus 2

Atalanta 0

xG 1.31 – 0.60 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Monday, 14/09/2026

3 matches

20:45

Inter 5

Udinese 3

xG 3.05 – 0.92 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:30

Como 2

Parma 1

xG 2.98 – 1.15 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:30

Torino 0

Roma 2

xG 0.86 – 1.85 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Sunday, 13/09/2026

1 match

18:00

Napoli 1

Bologna 0

xG 1.19 – 0.29 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 11/09/2026

1 match

20:45

Venezia 2

Fiorentina 4

xG 0.49 – 3.31 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

→

Monday, 07/09/2026

2 matches

20:45

Udinese 1

Lazio 2

xG 0.85 – 1.83 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated least likely landed
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18:30

Cagliari 1

Lecce 0

xG 1.61 – 0.50 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Saturday, 05/09/2026

2 matches

20:45

Roma 2

Atalanta 1

xG 2.97 – 0.70 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→
18:00

Inter 3

Napoli 2

xG 3.86 – 2.43 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Friday, 04/09/2026

1 match

20:45

Genoa 1

Como 4

xG 0.78 – 1.78 Followed the xG

Pre-match probabilities

The outcome the model rated most likely landed
→

Monday, 31/08/2026

1 match

18:30

Lecce 0

Roma 4

xG 0.80 – 3.27 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 30/08/2026

2 matches

20:45

Cagliari 0

Inter 1

xG 0.48 – 3.67 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
20:45

Lazio 1

Genoa 0

xG 1.62 – 0.42 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Saturday, 29/08/2026

2 matches

20:45

Juventus 2

Parma 0

xG 1.58 – 0.25 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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18:30

Sassuolo 2

Torino 1

xG 1.85 – 1.26 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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Friday, 28/08/2026

1 match

20:45

Milan 2

Venezia 0

xG 2.21 – 0.80 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Monday, 24/08/2026

1 match

20:45

Roma 4

Fiorentina 0

xG 3.07 – 0.35 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

Sunday, 23/08/2026

3 matches

20:45

Torino 1

Milan 2

xG 1.29 – 2.15 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
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18:30

Frosinone 0

Juventus 1

xG 0.41 – 2.18 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→
18:30

Venezia 0

Lecce 2

xG 2.05 – 2.70 Followed the xG

No pre-match probabilities
→

xG is a model estimate of the chances each side created. "Went with the xG" means the side with more xG won; "Went against the xG" means the side with less xG won or the match was drawn across a gap of at least 0.5. The probabilities are the ones the model published before kickoff, rounded so the three add to 100; the outline marks what happened.