Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 19:00
20d 17h to kick-offAEK Athens – Panetolikos
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- AEK Athens
- 71%
- Draw
- 21%
- Panetolikos
- 8%
| AEK Athens | Draw | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.40 | 4.75 | 13.05 |
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans AEK Athens
71% AEK Athens to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 14th
- AEK Athens attack v Panetolikos defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 14th
- AEK Athens defence v Panetolikos attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.08 – 0.64
- AEK Athens v Panetolikos
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEK Athens | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.02 · 2nd | 0.89 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.95 · 4th | 1.59 · 13th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.07 · 3rd | -0.70 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.96 · 3rd | 1.02 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | -0.52 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- AEK Athens clean sheet
- 50%
- AEK Athens 2+ goals
- 64%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 54%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 14.5%
- 1:0
- 11.5%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Panetolikos sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEK Athens
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Panetolikos
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.