Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:00
12d 20h to kick-offPanetolikos – Olympiacos FC
Model updated 5 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Panetolikos
- 11%
- Draw
- 27%
- Olympiacos FC
- 62%
| Panetolikos | Draw | Olympiacos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 8.98 | 3.71 | 1.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.31
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 44%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Olympiacos FC
62% Olympiacos FC to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 14th
- Olympiacos FC attack v Panetolikos defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 14th
- Olympiacos FC defence v Panetolikos attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.02 vs -0.52
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.65 – 1.67
- Panetolikos v Olympiacos FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Panetolikos | Olympiacos FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.89 · 12th | (better) 1.81 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.59 · 13th | (better) 0.56 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.70 · 12th | (better) +1.25 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.02 · 11th | (better) 2.25 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.52 | (better) +1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Olympiacos FC clean sheet
- 49%
- Olympiacos FC 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score: no
- 56%
Most likely scorelines
- 0:1
- 14.3%
- 0:2
- 14.2%
- 1:1
- 13.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Panetolikos sample
- 20 matches
- Olympiacos FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Panetolikos
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Olympiacos FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.