Beşiktaş

Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 18:00

7d 17h to kick-off

Match preview · Süper Lig

Beşiktaş 3rd in Süper Lig Home 1.75 projected goals

Kocaelispor 4th in Süper Lig Away 0.69 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00

What the model expects

expected goals

1.75 0.69

Beşiktaş Kocaelispor

Beşiktaş: 63%
Draw: 26%
Kocaelispor: 11%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Beşiktaş	Draw	Kocaelispor
Fair odds	1.60	3.86	8.77

Total goals: 2.43
Over 2.5 goals: 45%
Both teams to score: 46%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

The model sees an edge in 6 outcomes.

Beşiktaş

Model

62.7%

Market, margin removed

74.3%

Probability gap

−11.6 pp

Edge

−23.4%

Fair odds

1.60

Market odds

1.22 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

1.68

Bookmaker margin

10.2%
Draw

Model

25.9%

Market, margin removed

18.2%

Probability gap

+7.8 pp

Edge

+29.6%

Fair odds

3.86

Market odds

5.00 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

4.05

Bookmaker margin

10.2%
Kocaelispor

Model

11.4%

Market, margin removed

7.6%

Probability gap

+3.8 pp

Edge

+36.9%

Fair odds

8.77

Market odds

12.00 Bet365

Price at which a 5% edge begins

9.20

Bookmaker margin

10.2%

Outcomes with value

6 of 17 rated

Goals by team Great value

Beşiktaş not to score

10.00 Bet365 · fair 6.60 +51.5%

model 15.1% · book 9.6% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Goals by team Great value

Beşiktaş at most 1 goal

3.00 Bet365 · fair 2.17 +38.3%

model 46.1% · book 31.3% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Match result Great value

Kocaelispor to win

12.00 Bet365 · fair 8.77 +36.9%

model 11.4% · book 7.6% (no margin)

Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.

Goals Great value

Under 1.5 goals

5.00 Bet365 · fair 3.81 +31.3%

model 26.3% · book 18.9% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Goals Great value

Under 2.5 goals

2.35 Bet365 · fair 1.81 +29.8%

model 55.2% · book 40.1% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Match result Great value

Draw

5.00 Bet365 · fair 3.86 +29.6%

model 25.9% · book 18.2% (no margin)

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

No value Kocaelispor to score -0.3% Both teams to score -3.7% Kocaelispor at most 1 goal -4.7% Kocaelispor 2+ goals -7.7% Both teams not to score -9.7% Beşiktaş to score -9.8% Over 1.5 goals -13.9% Kocaelispor not to score -14.0% Beşiktaş to win -23.4% Beşiktaş 2+ goals -26.5% Over 2.5 goals -29.7%

Best opportunity

Beşiktaş not to score

odds · Bet365 10.00 value +51.5%

Model 15.1% vs. bookmaker 9.6%, margin removed.

Markets 6 / 17

Match result

Kocaelispor to win model 11.4% · book 7.6% (no margin) +36.9% 12.00 fair 8.77

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.

Draw model 25.9% · book 18.2% (no margin) +29.6% 5.00 fair 3.86

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).

Beşiktaş to win model 62.7% · book 74.3% (no margin) -23.4% 1.22 fair 1.60

Stay away

Goals

Under 1.5 goals model 26.3% · book 18.9% (no margin) +31.3% 5.00 fair 3.81

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).

Under 2.5 goals model 55.2% · book 40.1% (no margin) +29.8% 2.35 fair 1.81

Great value

No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).

Over 1.5 goals model 73.7% · book 81.1% (no margin) -13.9% 1.17 fair 1.36

Stay away

Over 2.5 goals model 44.8% · book 59.9% (no margin) -29.7% 1.57 fair 2.23

Stay away

Both teams to score

Both teams to score model 45.9% · book 44.3% (no margin) -3.7% 2.10 fair 2.18

Not worth it

Both teams not to score model 54.1% · book 55.7% (no margin) -9.7% 1.67 fair 1.85

Not worth it

Goals by team

Beşiktaş not to score model 15.1% · book 9.6% (no margin) +51.5% 10.00 fair 6.60

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.

Beşiktaş at most 1 goal model 46.1% · book 31.3% (no margin) +38.3% 3.00 fair 2.17

Great value

Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.

Kocaelispor to score model 52.2% · book 48.5% (no margin) -0.3% 1.91 fair 1.91

Not worth it

Kocaelispor at most 1 goal model 85.8% · book 85.4% (no margin) -4.7% 1.11 fair 1.17

Not worth it

Kocaelispor 2+ goals model 14.2% · book 14.6% (no margin) -7.7% 6.50 fair 7.04

Not worth it

Beşiktaş to score model 84.9% · book 90.4% (no margin) -9.8% 1.06 fair 1.18

Not worth it

Kocaelispor not to score model 47.8% · book 51.5% (no margin) -14.0% 1.80 fair 2.09

Stay away

Beşiktaş 2+ goals model 53.9% · book 68.7% (no margin) -26.5% 1.36 fair 1.86

Stay away

Hide the outcomes without value

Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →

The model's case

Why the model leans Beşiktaş

63% Beşiktaş to win

Attack: 3rd vs 9th; Beşiktaş attack v Kocaelispor defence
Defence: 1st vs 15th; Beşiktaş defence v Kocaelispor attack
Recent xG form: +1.19 vs -0.37; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.75 – 0.69; Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Beşiktaş	Kocaelispor
xG / match	(better) 1.85 · 5th	1.04 · 15th
xGA / match	(better) 0.66 · 1st	1.41 · 9th
xGD / match	(better) +1.19 · 2nd	-0.37 · 14th
xPts / match	(better) 2.23 · 1st	1.13 · 13th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.19	-0.37

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Beşiktaş	Kocaelispor
xG / match	(better) 1.85 · 5th	1.04 · 15th
npxG / match	(better) 1.56	0.94
Shots / match	(better) 17.8 · 3rd	12.3 · 13th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.09 · 8th	0.08 · 15th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Beşiktaş	Kocaelispor
xGA / match	(better) 0.66 · 1st	1.41 · 9th
Shots faced / match	(better) 8.5 · 1st	17.2 · 16th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.07 · 2nd	0.08 · 9th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Beşiktaş	Kocaelispor
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.85	1.04
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 0.66	1.41
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +1.19	-0.37

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 40% of the model's distribution.

Beşiktaş clean sheet: 48%
Beşiktaş 2+ goals: 54%
Under 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: no: 54%

Most likely scorelines

2:0: 13.9%
1:1: 13.3%
1:0: 13.3%

Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Match result

Beşiktaş to win

62.7% 1.60 —

Draw

25.9% 3.86 —

Kocaelispor to win

11.4% 8.77 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

73.7% 1.36 —

Under 1.5 goals

26.3% 3.81 —

Over 2.5 goals

44.8% 2.23 —

Under 2.5 goals

55.2% 1.81 —

Both teams to score

45.9% 2.18 —

Both teams not to score

54.1% 1.85 —

Team goals — Beşiktaş

Beşiktaş to score

84.9% 1.18 —

Beşiktaş not to score

15.1% 6.60 —

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

53.9% 1.86 —

Beşiktaş at most 1 goal

46.1% 2.17 —

Team goals — Kocaelispor

Kocaelispor to score

52.2% 1.91 —

Kocaelispor not to score

47.8% 2.09 —

Kocaelispor 2+ goals

14.2% 7.04 —

Kocaelispor at most 1 goal

85.8% 1.17 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Beşiktaş sample: 20 matches
Kocaelispor sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Beşiktaş: 3 matches
Away xG sample · Kocaelispor: 3 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Odds updated: 1 minute ago

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Beşiktaş

1.85 xG created 0.66 xGA

W 1.28 created, 0.09 conceded against Eyüpspor
L 0.74 created, 0.54 conceded against Alanyaspor
W 2.97 created, 0.67 conceded against Çorum FK
W 1.75 created, 0.59 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 2.29 created, 0.50 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 2.04 created, 1.54 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

Kocaelispor

1.04 xG created 1.41 xGA

L 0.43 created, 1.96 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 1.31 created, 0.60 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
W 0.76 created, 0.85 conceded against Konyaspor
W 1.59 created, 1.74 conceded against Samsunspor
L 0.82 created, 2.26 conceded against Galatasaray
W 1.30 created, 1.03 conceded against Gaziantep FK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

What the model expects

Model vs market

Draw

Kocaelispor

Outcomes with value

Why the model leans Beşiktaş

Team comparison

Beşiktaş attack → Kocaelispor defence

Kocaelispor attack → Beşiktaş defence

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

Most likely scorelines

Check your bookmaker's price

Match result

Goals

Both teams to score

Team goals — Beşiktaş

Team goals — Kocaelispor

Model details