Friday, 23/10/2026 at 20:00
Full timeFC Corvinul Hunedoara 0:3 FC Universitatea Cluj
FC Corvinul Hunedoara were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. FC Universitatea Cluj won 3–0. The biggest difference was FC Universitatea Cluj's attack: 1.92 xG against 1.43 projected (+0.49). FC Corvinul Hunedoara produced 1.47 xG against 1.84 projected (−0.37).
The model against the result
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- 46%
- Draw
- 26%
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Projected vs produced
FC Universitatea Cluj produced 0.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 10
- On target
- 4
- 5
- Inside the box
- 9
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.19
Recent form
1.46 xG created 1.57 xGA
- D 0.91 created, 1.78 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 1.35 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.60 created, 1.07 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 2.59 created, 2.10 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.58 created, 1.70 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 0.73 created, 1.91 conceded against FC Rapid București
1.99 xG created 1.41 xGA
- L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 1.78 created, 0.20 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.49 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.85 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Rapid București
- D 1.80 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged2 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals | 2.25 | +27.9% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +21.2% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +15.6% | Lost |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara to win | 2.50 | +14.9% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +9.1% | Won |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score | 1.25 | +8.0% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara | 45.9% | 35.6% | +10.3 pp | 2.18 |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.7% | −2.3 pp | 3.79 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 27.6% | 35.6% | −8.0 pp | 3.62 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara to score | 86.4% | 75.0% | +11.4 pp | 1.16 |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara not to score | 13.6% | 25.0% | −11.4 pp | 7.35 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 78.7% | 75.0% | +3.7 pp | 1.27 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 21.3% | 25.0% | −3.7 pp | 4.69 |
| Both teams to score | 69.3% | 55.7% | +13.6 pp | 1.44 |
| Both teams not to score | 30.7% | 44.3% | −13.6 pp | 3.26 |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals | 56.9% | 41.1% | +15.7 pp | 1.76 |
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara at most 1 goal | 43.1% | 58.9% | −15.7 pp | 2.32 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 43.0% | 41.1% | +1.9 pp | 2.32 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 57.0% | 58.9% | −1.9 pp | 1.76 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.3% | 75.0% | +12.3 pp | 1.15 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12.7% | 25.0% | −12.3 pp | 7.88 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.5% | 51.3% | +14.2 pp | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 34.5% | 48.7% | −14.2 pp | 2.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample
- 11 matches
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.