Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 15:00
6d 15h to kick-offFC Universitatea Cluj – FC Rapid București
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 43%
- Draw
- 28%
- FC Rapid București
- 29%
| FC Universitatea Cluj | Draw | FC Rapid București | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.33 | 3.53 | 3.47 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Universitatea Cluj
43% FC Universitatea Cluj to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 3rd
- FC Universitatea Cluj attack v FC Rapid București defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 4th
- FC Universitatea Cluj defence v FC Rapid București attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs +0.59
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.63 – 1.34
- FC Universitatea Cluj v FC Rapid București
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Universitatea Cluj | FC Rapid București |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.98 · 6th | 1.79 · 8th |
| xGA / match | 1.70 · 8th | (better) 1.12 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.28 · 6th | (better) +0.67 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.55 · 6th | (better) 1.78 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.47 | (better) +0.59 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- FC Universitatea Cluj clean sheet
- 24%
- FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
- 50%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 10.5%
- 1:2
- 8.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rapid București sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Universitatea Cluj
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Rapid București
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.