Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offFK Radnički Niš – FK Novi Pazar
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Radnički Niš
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Novi Pazar
- 26%
| FK Radnički Niš | Draw | FK Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.19 | 3.56 | 3.82 |
- Total goals
- 2.96
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 64%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Radnički Niš
46% FK Radnički Niš to win
- Attack
- 8th vs 10th
- FK Radnički Niš attack v FK Novi Pazar defence
- Defence
- 8th vs 7th
- FK Radnički Niš defence v FK Novi Pazar attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.39 vs +0.15
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.69 – 1.27
- FK Radnički Niš v FK Novi Pazar
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Radnički Niš | FK Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.48 · 10th | (better) 2.00 · 6th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.42 · 5th | 2.04 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.06 · 8th | -0.04 · 9th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.51 · 7th | 1.44 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.39 | (better) +0.15 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- FK Radnički Niš clean sheet
- 25%
- FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 36%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 8.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Radnički Niš
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Novi Pazar
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.