Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 16:30
19d 15h to kick-offBasel – Grasshopper Club Zürich
Model updated 6 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Basel
- 41%
- Draw
- 28%
- Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 31%
| Basel | Draw | Grasshopper Club Zürich | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.44 | 3.52 | 3.26 |
- Total goals
- 2.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Basel
41% Basel to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 12th
- Basel attack v Grasshopper Club Zürich defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 8th
- Basel defence v Grasshopper Club Zürich attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.48 vs -0.01
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.38
- Basel v Grasshopper Club Zürich
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Basel | Grasshopper Club Zürich |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.22 · 11th | (better) 2.01 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.39 · 3rd | 2.18 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.17 · 7th | -0.18 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.26 · 8th | (better) 1.29 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.48 | (better) -0.01 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Basel clean sheet
- 22%
- Basel 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.6%
- 2:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 8.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Basel sample
- 20 matches
- Grasshopper Club Zürich sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Basel
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Grasshopper Club Zürich
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.