Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 13:00
13d 11h to kick-offFF Jaro – IFK Mariehamn
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FF Jaro
- 47%
- Draw
- 27%
- IFK Mariehamn
- 26%
| FF Jaro | Draw | IFK Mariehamn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.13 | 3.76 | 3.78 |
- Total goals
- 3.22
- Over 2.5 goals
- 64%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FF Jaro
47% FF Jaro to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 12th
- FF Jaro attack v IFK Mariehamn defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 11th
- FF Jaro defence v IFK Mariehamn attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.03 vs -0.51
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.83 – 1.38
- FF Jaro v IFK Mariehamn
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FF Jaro | IFK Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.21 · 10th | 1.10 · 12th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.71 · 10th | 2.50 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.50 · 11th | -1.41 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.05 · 11th | 0.69 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.03 | -0.51 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- FF Jaro clean sheet
- 22%
- FF Jaro 2+ goals
- 57%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 36%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.2%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:2
- 7.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FF Jaro sample
- 20 matches
- IFK Mariehamn sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FF Jaro
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · IFK Mariehamn
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.