Friday, 16/10/2026 at 19:00
12d 17h to kick-offIF Brommapojkarna – Djurgårdens IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- IF Brommapojkarna
- 24%
- Draw
- 26%
- Djurgårdens IF
- 50%
| IF Brommapojkarna | Draw | Djurgårdens IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.20 | 3.82 | 2.00 |
- Total goals
- 3.17
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 67%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Djurgårdens IF
50% Djurgårdens IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 11th
- Djurgårdens IF attack v IF Brommapojkarna defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 13th
- Djurgårdens IF defence v IF Brommapojkarna attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs -0.07
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.88
- IF Brommapojkarna v Djurgårdens IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IF Brommapojkarna | Djurgårdens IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.45 · 12th | (better) 2.30 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.80 · 11th | (better) 1.15 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.35 · 10th | (better) +1.16 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.23 · 9th | (better) 2.05 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.07 | (better) +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Djurgårdens IF clean sheet
- 25%
- Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 33%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.2%
- 1:2
- 10.9%
- 2:2
- 7.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IF Brommapojkarna sample
- 20 matches
- Djurgårdens IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IF Brommapojkarna
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Djurgårdens IF
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.