Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 19:00
24d 18h to kick-offIFK Göteborg – Djurgårdens IF
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- IFK Göteborg
- 34%
- Draw
- 27%
- Djurgårdens IF
- 39%
| IFK Göteborg | Draw | Djurgårdens IF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.93 | 3.76 | 2.55 |
- Total goals
- 3.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Djurgårdens IF
39% Djurgårdens IF to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 9th
- Djurgårdens IF attack v IFK Göteborg defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 3rd
- Djurgårdens IF defence v IFK Göteborg attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.48 vs +0.66
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.61 – 1.73
- IFK Göteborg v Djurgårdens IF
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | IFK Göteborg | Djurgårdens IF |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.95 · 5th | (better) 2.30 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.63 · 8th | (better) 1.15 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.32 · 7th | (better) +1.16 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.60 · 7th | (better) 2.05 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.66 | (better) +1.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Djurgårdens IF clean sheet
- 18%
- Djurgårdens IF 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 11.7%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 8.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- IFK Göteborg sample
- 20 matches
- Djurgårdens IF sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · IFK Göteborg
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · Djurgårdens IF
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.