Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 19:30
4d 19h to kick-offAustria Wien – SK Sturm Graz
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Austria Wien
- 25%
- Draw
- 31%
- SK Sturm Graz
- 43%
| Austria Wien | Draw | SK Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.94 | 3.19 | 2.31 |
- Total goals
- 2.46
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 55%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Austria Wien
- Model
- 25.4%
- Market, margin removed
- 31.0%
- Probability gap
- −5.7 pp
- Edge
- −23.8%
- Fair odds
- 3.94
- Market odds
- 3.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.14
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 26.6%
- Probability gap
- +4.7 pp
- Edge
- +9.6%
- Fair odds
- 3.19
- Market odds
- 3.50 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.35
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
-
SK Sturm Graz
- Model
- 43.3%
- Market, margin removed
- 42.3%
- Probability gap
- +0.9 pp
- Edge
- −4.8%
- Fair odds
- 2.31
- Market odds
- 2.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.43
- Bookmaker margin
- 7.4%
Outcomes with value
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans SK Sturm Graz
43% SK Sturm Graz to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 5th
- SK Sturm Graz attack v Austria Wien defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 11th
- SK Sturm Graz defence v Austria Wien attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.38 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.06 – 1.41
- Austria Wien v SK Sturm Graz
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Austria Wien | SK Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.74 · 12th | (better) 1.83 · 5th |
| xGA / match | 1.85 · 9th | (better) 1.29 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -1.12 · 11th | (better) +0.53 · 4th |
| xPts / match | 0.77 · 11th | (better) 1.70 · 4th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) +0.38 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- SK Sturm Graz clean sheet
- 32%
- SK Sturm Graz 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 45%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 1:2
- 10.6%
- 0:1
- 9.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Austria Wien sample
- 20 matches
- SK Sturm Graz sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Austria Wien
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · SK Sturm Graz
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.