Friday, 16/10/2026 at 20:00
12d 19h to kick-offAris Limassol – AEK Larnaca
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Aris Limassol
- 46%
- Draw
- 30%
- AEK Larnaca
- 24%
| Aris Limassol | Draw | AEK Larnaca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.18 | 3.36 | 4.11 |
- Total goals
- 2.65
- Over 2.5 goals
- 51%
- Both teams to score
- 59%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Aris Limassol
46% Aris Limassol to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Aris Limassol attack v AEK Larnaca defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 3rd
- Aris Limassol defence v AEK Larnaca attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.42 vs -0.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.55 – 1.11
- Aris Limassol v AEK Larnaca
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Aris Limassol | AEK Larnaca |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.71 · 4th from 4 matches | (better) 1.93 · 3rd from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.25 · 4th from 4 matches | 1.56 · 10th from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.46 · 3rd from 4 matches | +0.37 · 5th from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.73 · 3rd from 4 matches | 1.53 · 6th from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.42 | -0.11 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Aris Limassol clean sheet
- 30%
- Aris Limassol 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 49%
- Both teams to score: no
- 41%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 11.1%
- 1:0
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Aris Limassol sample
- 20 matches
- AEK Larnaca sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Aris Limassol
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · AEK Larnaca
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.