Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 14h to kick-offJagiellonia Białystok – Wisła Płock
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Jagiellonia Białystok
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- Wisła Płock
- 32%
| Jagiellonia Białystok | Draw | Wisła Płock | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.61 | 3.39 | 3.11 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Jagiellonia Białystok
38% Jagiellonia Białystok to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 9th
- Jagiellonia Białystok attack v Wisła Płock defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 5th
- Jagiellonia Białystok defence v Wisła Płock attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.09 vs +0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.48 – 1.35
- Jagiellonia Białystok v Wisła Płock
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Jagiellonia Białystok | Wisła Płock |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.50 · 10th | (better) 1.52 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.52 · 9th | 1.63 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.03 · 8th | -0.11 · 12th |
| xPts / match | 1.23 · 14th | (better) 1.30 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.09 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Jagiellonia Białystok clean sheet
- 23%
- Jagiellonia Białystok 2+ goals
- 45%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Jagiellonia Białystok sample
- 20 matches
- Wisła Płock sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Jagiellonia Białystok
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Wisła Płock
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.