Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:30
17d 1h to kick-offPogoń Szczecin – Radomiak Radom
Model updated 7 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Pogoń Szczecin
- 46%
- Draw
- 28%
- Radomiak Radom
- 26%
| Pogoń Szczecin | Draw | Radomiak Radom | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.16 | 3.58 | 3.89 |
- Total goals
- 2.97
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Pogoń Szczecin
46% Pogoń Szczecin to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 18th
- Pogoń Szczecin attack v Radomiak Radom defence
- Defence
- 11th vs 10th
- Pogoń Szczecin defence v Radomiak Radom attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.50 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.71 – 1.27
- Pogoń Szczecin v Radomiak Radom
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Pogoń Szczecin | Radomiak Radom |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.48 · 11th | 1.41 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.38 · 6th | 2.05 · 17th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.10 · 7th | -0.64 · 16th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.48 · 5th | 0.99 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.50 | -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Pogoń Szczecin clean sheet
- 25%
- Pogoń Szczecin 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 11.0%
- 1:2
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Pogoń Szczecin sample
- 20 matches
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Pogoń Szczecin
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Radomiak Radom
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.