Monday, 12/10/2026 at 18:00
6d 20h to kick-offRadomiak Radom – Motor Lublin
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Radomiak Radom
- 38%
- Draw
- 29%
- Motor Lublin
- 33%
| Radomiak Radom | Draw | Motor Lublin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.60 | 3.47 | 3.05 |
- Total goals
- 2.96
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market prices are broadly in line with the model.
-
Radomiak Radom
- Model
- 38.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 39.5%
- Probability gap
- −1.0 pp
- Edge
- −11.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.60
- Market odds
- 2.30 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.73
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
Draw
- Model
- 28.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 27.5%
- Probability gap
- +1.3 pp
- Edge
- −5.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.47
- Market odds
- 3.30 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
-
Motor Lublin
- Model
- 32.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 33.0%
- Probability gap
- −0.3 pp
- Edge
- −10.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.05
- Market odds
- 2.75 Paddy Power
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.21
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.1%
Outcomes with value
Not one rated outcome carries value.
Match result
Goals
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Radomiak Radom
38% Radomiak Radom to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 13th
- Radomiak Radom attack v Motor Lublin defence
- Defence
- 18th vs 15th
- Radomiak Radom defence v Motor Lublin attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs +0.06
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.54 – 1.42
- Radomiak Radom v Motor Lublin
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Radomiak Radom | Motor Lublin |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.41 · 13th | 1.39 · 16th |
| xGA / match | 2.05 · 17th | (better) 1.53 · 10th |
| xGD / match | -0.64 · 16th | (better) -0.14 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 0.99 · 16th | (better) 1.26 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.06 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Radomiak Radom clean sheet
- 21%
- Radomiak Radom 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.9%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Radomiak Radom sample
- 20 matches
- Motor Lublin sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Radomiak Radom
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · Motor Lublin
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.