Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
28d 16h to kick-offKFUM Oslo – HamKam
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- KFUM Oslo
- 40%
- Draw
- 33%
- HamKam
- 27%
| KFUM Oslo | Draw | HamKam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.51 | 3.02 | 3.69 |
- Total goals
- 2.27
- Over 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans KFUM Oslo
40% KFUM Oslo to win
- Attack
- 16th vs 15th
- KFUM Oslo attack v HamKam defence
- Defence
- 14th vs 15th
- KFUM Oslo defence v HamKam attack
- Recent xG form
- -1.02 vs -1.12
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.25 – 1.02
- KFUM Oslo v HamKam
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | KFUM Oslo | HamKam |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.09 · 15th | (better) 1.14 · 14th |
| xGA / match | 1.78 · 15th | (better) 1.66 · 12th |
| xGD / match | -0.69 · 15th | (better) -0.52 · 13th |
| xPts / match | 0.94 · 16th | (better) 1.05 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -1.02 | -1.12 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- KFUM Oslo clean sheet
- 33%
- KFUM Oslo 2+ goals
- 36%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score: no
- 48%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.0%
- 1:0
- 10.7%
- 0:0
- 10.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- HamKam sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · KFUM Oslo
- 11 matches
- Away xG sample · HamKam
- 11 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.