xgEdge

Expected goals

Tromsø IL expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Eliteserien · after 21 matches · updated 1 Oct

Tromsø IL's attacking and defensive expected goals in Eliteserien 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Tromsø IL xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.60 xG per match
#4/16
Attack (xG per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.31
#2 Viking FK 2.09
#3 Molde FK 1.83
#4 Tromsø IL 1.60
#5 SK Brann 1.58
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.56
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.56
#8 Vålerenga IF 1.55
#9 Sarpsborg 08 1.51
#10 Aalesunds FK 1.40
#11 IK Start 1.36
#12 Fredrikstad FK 1.20
#13 Sandefjord Fotball 1.18
#14 HamKam 1.14
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.09
#16 Kristiansund BK 0.97
League avg
1.50
Total
33.59 21 matches
Defence
1.23 xGA per match
#4/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.90
#2 Viking FK 1.16
#3 Molde FK 1.17
#4 Tromsø IL 1.23
#5 Sarpsborg 08 1.40
#6 Rosenborg BK 1.42
#7 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#8 SK Brann 1.53
#9 Sandefjord Fotball 1.59
#10 IK Start 1.61
#11 Vålerenga IF 1.63
#12 HamKam 1.66
#13 Fredrikstad FK 1.67
#14 Kristiansund BK 1.72
#15 KFUM Oslo 1.78
#16 Aalesunds FK 1.98
League avg
1.50
Total
25.89 21 matches
xG difference
+0.37 xGD per match
#4/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt +1.41
#2 Viking FK +0.93
#3 Molde FK +0.66
#4 Tromsø IL +0.37
#5 Rosenborg BK +0.14
#6 Sarpsborg 08 +0.11
#7 Lillestrøm SK +0.10
#8 SK Brann +0.05
#9 Vålerenga IF -0.08
#10 IK Start -0.25
#11 Sandefjord Fotball -0.41
#12 Fredrikstad FK -0.47
#13 HamKam -0.52
#14 Aalesunds FK -0.58
#15 KFUM Oslo -0.69
#16 Kristiansund BK -0.75
League avg
0.00
Total
+7.70 21 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.68 xPts per match
#4/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 2.24
#2 Viking FK 1.97
#3 Molde FK 1.80
#4 Tromsø IL 1.68
#5 Rosenborg BK 1.52
#6 Lillestrøm SK 1.46
#7 Sarpsborg 08 1.45
#8 SK Brann 1.40
#9 Vålerenga IF 1.33
#10 IK Start 1.19
#11 Fredrikstad FK 1.10
#12 Sandefjord Fotball 1.09
#13 HamKam 1.05
#14 Aalesunds FK 1.04
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.95
#16 KFUM Oslo 0.94
League avg
1.39
Total
35.18 vs 38 actual pts

What the xG says

Tromsø IL's underlying numbers are among the best in Eliteserien. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.37 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 40 goals are 6.41 above 33.59 xG, while 38 points are 2.82 above 35.18 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.64 xG from penalties
40 33.59 +6.41 scored 6.41 more than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
29 25.89 +3.11 conceded 3.11 more than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
38 35.18 +2.82 2.82 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Tromsø IL are 6.41 goals above their xG after 21 matches. The gap was widest at +6.46, against Molde FK on Sun 16/08.

Goals
40
xG
33.59
Gap
+6.41
Sun 15/03 Sun 22/03 Mon 06/04 Sat 11/04 Wed 15/04 Sun 19/04 Sun 26/04 Wed 29/04 Sun 03/05 Sun 10/05 Sat 16/05 Mon 25/05 Fri 29/05 Sat 11/07 Sat 18/07 Sun 02/08 Sun 16/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sat 12/09 Sun 20/09 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +0.69 +0.85 -0.05 +0.13 -2.02 -2.30 -1.00 -2.23 -1.66 -1.64 -1.75 -2.34 -3.18 -1.13 +0.97 +5.11 +6.46 +5.08 +4.73 +5.53 +6.41 +0.69 +0.16 -0.90 +0.18 -2.15 -0.28 +1.30 -1.23 +0.57 +0.02 -0.11 -0.59 -0.84 +2.05 +2.10 +4.14 +1.35 -1.38 -0.35 +0.80 +0.88 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Tromsø IL: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 15/03 Fredrikstad FK 4 3.31 +0.69 +0.69
Sun 22/03 SK Brann 2 1.84 +0.16 +0.85
Mon 06/04 Rosenborg BK 2 2.90 -0.90 -0.05
Sat 11/04 Kristiansund BK 2 1.82 +0.18 +0.13
Wed 15/04 Lillestrøm SK 0 2.15 -2.15 -2.02
Sun 19/04 Sarpsborg 08 1 1.28 -0.28 -2.30
Sun 26/04 Sandefjord Fotball 3 1.70 +1.30 -1.00
Wed 29/04 SK Brann 0 1.23 -1.23 -2.23
Sun 03/05 IK Start 1 0.43 +0.57 -1.66
Sun 10/05 Molde FK 2 1.98 +0.02 -1.64
Sat 16/05 Bodø/Glimt 0 0.11 -0.11 -1.75
Mon 25/05 Aalesunds FK 1 1.59 -0.59 -2.34
Fri 29/05 KFUM Oslo 0 0.84 -0.84 -3.18
Sat 11/07 Vålerenga IF 4 1.95 +2.05 -1.13
Sat 18/07 HamKam 4 1.90 +2.10 +0.97
Sun 02/08 Aalesunds FK 6 1.86 +4.14 +5.11
Sun 16/08 Molde FK 2 0.65 +1.35 +6.46
Sun 30/08 Sarpsborg 08 0 1.38 -1.38 +5.08
Sun 06/09 Kristiansund BK 0 0.35 -0.35 +4.73
Sat 12/09 Rosenborg BK 3 2.20 +0.80 +5.53
Sun 20/09 HamKam 3 2.12 +0.88 +6.41

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

Tromsø IL xG trend

Current form +0.01 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 12 of 21 matches. The worst was against Bodø/Glimt on Sat 16/05 (-2.61).

npxG · last 6
1.30
npxGA · last 6
1.29
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +2.96 Sun 15/03 +0.66 Sun 22/03 +2.69 Mon 06/04 +0.75 Sat 11/04 -0.02 Wed 15/04 -0.16 Sun 19/04 +0.72 Sun 26/04 -0.94 Wed 29/04 -0.49 Sun 03/05 +1.05 Sun 10/05 -2.61 Sat 16/05 +0.71 Mon 25/05 +0.47 Fri 29/05 +0.61 Sat 11/07 +1.05 Sat 18/07 -0.66 Sun 02/08 -1.13 Sun 16/08 +0.88 Sun 30/08 -0.30 Sun 06/09 -0.40 Sat 12/09 +1.67 Sun 20/09 +0.36 season avg
Tromsø IL: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 15/03 Fredrikstad FK 3.42 0.46 +2.96 +2.96
Sun 22/03 SK Brann 1.94 1.28 +0.66 +1.81
Mon 06/04 Rosenborg BK 2.95 0.26 +2.69 +2.10
Sat 11/04 Kristiansund BK 1.41 0.66 +0.75 +1.76
Wed 15/04 Lillestrøm SK 1.29 1.31 -0.02 +1.41
Sun 19/04 Sarpsborg 08 1.34 1.50 -0.16 +1.15
Sun 26/04 Sandefjord Fotball 1.30 0.58 +0.72 +1.09
Wed 29/04 SK Brann 1.93 2.87 -0.94 +0.83
Sun 03/05 IK Start 0.43 0.92 -0.49 +0.69
Sun 10/05 Molde FK 2.23 1.18 +1.05 +0.72
Sat 16/05 Bodø/Glimt 0.17 2.78 -2.61 +0.42
Mon 25/05 Aalesunds FK 1.61 0.90 +0.71 +0.44
Fri 29/05 KFUM Oslo 0.84 0.37 +0.47 +0.45
Sat 11/07 Vålerenga IF 1.39 0.78 +0.61 +0.46
Sat 18/07 HamKam 1.90 0.85 +1.05 +0.50
Sun 02/08 Aalesunds FK 1.95 2.61 -0.66 +0.42
Sun 16/08 Molde FK 0.61 1.74 -1.13 +0.33
Sun 30/08 Sarpsborg 08 1.39 0.51 +0.88 +0.36
Sun 06/09 Kristiansund BK 0.35 0.65 -0.30 +0.33
Sat 12/09 Rosenborg BK 1.38 1.78 -0.40 +0.29
Sun 20/09 HamKam 2.12 0.45 +1.67 +0.36

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.52 npxG and 1.16 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
tied number 13 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
−0.04 xG vs league average
Over 21 league matches
Last 5
number 12 hardest of 16 in Eliteserien
−0.06 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.04 xG vs league average · over 21 matches · tied number 13 hardest of 16

  1. HamKam Home −0.51
  2. Rosenborg BK Away +0.14
  3. Kristiansund BK Away −0.36
  4. Sarpsborg 08 Home +0.08
  5. Molde FK Away +0.35
  6. Aalesunds FK Away −0.12
  7. HamKam Away −0.51
  8. Vålerenga IF Home +0.11
  9. KFUM Oslo Away −0.52
  10. Aalesunds FK Home −0.12
  11. Bodø/Glimt Away +0.79
  12. Molde FK Home +0.35
  13. IK Start Away +0.04
  14. SK Brann Home 0.00
  15. Sandefjord Fotball Home −0.13
  16. Sarpsborg 08 Away +0.08
  17. Lillestrøm SK Home −0.10
  18. Kristiansund BK Home −0.36
  19. Rosenborg BK Home +0.14
  20. SK Brann Away 0.00
  21. Fredrikstad FK Home −0.20

Last 5

−0.06 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 12 hardest of 16

  1. HamKam Home −0.51
  2. Rosenborg BK Away +0.14
  3. Kristiansund BK Away −0.36
  4. Sarpsborg 08 Home +0.08
  5. Molde FK Away +0.35

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Tromsø IL shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. Tromsø IL take 13.5 shots a match (league 13.8) at 0.11 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #10 in Eliteserien for volume and #2 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 69%), and set pieces produce 28% of their npxG (league 24%).

Attack

Shot volume
13.5 shots per match
#10/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 17.7
=2 Viking FK 16.2
=2 Vålerenga IF 16.2
#4 Aalesunds FK 15.6
#5 Molde FK 15.4
#6 Sandefjord Fotball 14.5
#7 SK Brann 14.1
#8 IK Start 14.0
#9 Rosenborg BK 13.6
#10 Tromsø IL 13.5
#11 Sarpsborg 08 13.3
#12 Lillestrøm SK 12.5
#13 Kristiansund BK 12.5
#14 Fredrikstad FK 11.3
#15 KFUM Oslo 10.5
#16 HamKam 10.4
League avg
13.8
Total
283 shots from 21 matches
Chance quality
0.11 npxG per shot
#2/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#2 Tromsø IL 0.11
#3 Viking FK 0.11
#4 Molde FK 0.11
#5 Lillestrøm SK 0.10
#6 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#7 Sarpsborg 08 0.10
#8 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#9 HamKam 0.10
#10 SK Brann 0.10
#11 KFUM Oslo 0.09
#12 IK Start 0.09
#13 Vålerenga IF 0.09
#14 Aalesunds FK 0.09
#15 Kristiansund BK 0.08
#16 Sandefjord Fotball 0.07
League avg
0.10
Total
31.95 npxG from 283 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.2 shots per match
#2/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Bodø/Glimt 8.3
#2 Tromsø IL 11.2
#3 Molde FK 12.0
#4 Viking FK 13.0
#5 Sarpsborg 08 13.1
#6 Rosenborg BK 13.3
#7 Lillestrøm SK 13.9
#8 SK Brann 14.4
#9 IK Start 14.4
#10 KFUM Oslo 14.7
#11 Vålerenga IF 14.8
#12 Fredrikstad FK 15.0
=13 Kristiansund BK 15.0
=13 Sandefjord Fotball 15.0
#15 HamKam 16.4
#16 Aalesunds FK 16.9
League avg
13.8
Total
235 shots allowed from 21 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.10 npxGA per shot
#13/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Eliteserien, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Viking FK 0.08
#2 Sandefjord Fotball 0.09
#3 Lillestrøm SK 0.09
#4 Sarpsborg 08 0.09
#5 Molde FK 0.09
#6 IK Start 0.10
#7 SK Brann 0.10
#8 Vålerenga IF 0.10
#9 Fredrikstad FK 0.10
#10 HamKam 0.10
#11 Kristiansund BK 0.10
#12 Rosenborg BK 0.10
#13 Tromsø IL 0.10
#14 KFUM Oslo 0.10
#15 Bodø/Glimt 0.11
#16 Aalesunds FK 0.11
League avg
0.10
Total
24.44 npxGA from 235 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 69%

From 203 of 283 shots over 21 matches

Shots allowed, location

69% allowed inside the box

League avg 69%

From 161 of 235 shots allowed over 21 matches

Where the npxG comes from

72% open play · 28% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 8.8 of 31.5 npxG over 21 matches

Where the npxG allowed comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 24% set pieces

From 4.7 of 24.2 npxG allowed over 21 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Tromsø IL home and away xG

Tromsø IL per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 11 10
xG / match 2.01 1.15
xGA / match 0.90 1.60
xGD / match +1.11 -0.45
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.14 1.17

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Tromsø IL match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
21
xG / match
1.60
xGA / match
1.23
xGD / match
+0.37
Points
38 of 63
  1. Sun 20/09 HamKam H xG 2.12 xGA 0.35 xGD +1.77
  2. Sat 12/09 Rosenborg BK A xG 2.20 P xGA 1.81 xGD +0.39
  3. Sun 06/09 Kristiansund BK A xG 0.35 xGA 0.65 xGD -0.30
  4. Sun 30/08 Sarpsborg 08 H xG 1.38 xGA 0.51 xGD +0.87
  5. Sun 16/08 Molde FK A xG 0.65 xGA 2.50 P xGD -1.85
  6. Sun 02/08 Aalesunds FK A xG 1.86 xGA 2.69 xGD -0.83
  7. Sat 18/07 HamKam A xG 1.90 xGA 0.80 xGD +1.10
  8. Sat 11/07 Vålerenga IF H xG 1.95 P xGA 0.77 xGD +1.18
  9. Fri 29/05 KFUM Oslo A xG 0.84 xGA 0.36 xGD +0.48
  10. Mon 25/05 Aalesunds FK H xG 1.59 xGA 0.90 xGD +0.69
  11. Sat 16/05 Bodø/Glimt A Weakest underlying xG 0.11 xGA 3.59 P xGD -3.48
  12. Sun 10/05 Molde FK H xG 1.98 xGA 1.16 xGD +0.82
  13. Sun 03/05 IK Start A xG 0.43 xGA 0.92 xGD -0.49
  14. Wed 29/04 SK Brann H xG 1.23 xGA 2.74 xGD -1.51
  15. Sun 26/04 Sandefjord Fotball H xG 1.70 xGA 0.70 xGD +1.00
  16. Sun 19/04 Sarpsborg 08 A xG 1.28 xGA 1.43 xGD -0.15
  17. Wed 15/04 Lillestrøm SK H xG 2.15 P xGA 1.38 xGD +0.77
  18. Sat 11/04 Kristiansund BK H xG 1.82 xGA 0.74 xGD +1.08
  19. Mon 06/04 Rosenborg BK H xG 2.90 xGA 0.26 xGD +2.64
  20. Sun 22/03 SK Brann A xG 1.84 xGA 1.21 xGD +0.63
  21. Sun 15/03 Fredrikstad FK H Best underlying xG 3.31 xGA 0.42 xGD +2.89

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.59. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Tromsø IL in Eliteserien

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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