Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 17:00
35d 18h to kick-offViking FK – KFUM Oslo
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Viking FK
- 63%
- Draw
- 25%
- KFUM Oslo
- 12%
| Viking FK | Draw | KFUM Oslo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.58 | 4.08 | 8.15 |
- Total goals
- 2.73
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Viking FK
63% Viking FK to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 14th
- Viking FK attack v KFUM Oslo defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 16th
- Viking FK defence v KFUM Oslo attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.44 vs -1.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.92 – 0.81
- Viking FK v KFUM Oslo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Viking FK | KFUM Oslo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.09 · 2nd | 1.09 · 15th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.16 · 2nd | 1.78 · 15th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.93 · 2nd | -0.69 · 15th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.97 · 2nd | 0.94 · 16th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.44 | -1.02 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Viking FK clean sheet
- 41%
- Viking FK 2+ goals
- 59%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.7%
- 2:0
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Viking FK sample
- 20 matches
- KFUM Oslo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Viking FK
- 10 matches
- Away xG sample · KFUM Oslo
- 10 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.